Bitcoin Remains Stable Above $60,000; Mexican Banks Anticipate Challenges in 2025 Despite Foreign Investment

The financial sector is showing mixed momentum: Bitcoin is trading stable above $60,000 USD, while the outlook for Mexican banking in 2025 suggests challenges due to slower growth and a possible increase in non-performing loans, despite positive news such as Unilever's investment and in contrast to U.S. actions against cartel finance.

The world of finance and banking presents a complex outlook on May 2, with relative stability in the crypto market, cautious projections for traditional banking in Mexico, and significant regulatory actions from the United States.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, held a relatively stable price during the early hours of the day. According to data from Infobae, the price stood at $60,593.14 USD. This represented a change of +1.6% over the last 24 hours and a slight movement of +0.22% in the last hour.

Although far from its all-time high near $68,000 USD, Bitcoin's holdings above the psychological threshold of $60,000 suggest some consolidation after periods of heightened volatility. The market continues to focus on macroeconomic, regulatory, and institutional adoption factors to determine its next direction.

Despite positive news such as Unilever's announcement of a $1.5 billion investment in Mexico, reflecting confidence in the economy, the specific outlook for the Mexican banking sector in 2025 is more subdued, according to a Deloitte report. Banks are expected to face more challenging macroeconomic conditions:

• Lower Net Interest Margin: Although interest rates are expected to decline, modest economic growth could lead to a significant decline in the net interest margin, stabilizing between 6% and 6.5% by the end of 2025.
• Credit Quality: A slight deterioration in credit quality, which has been at historically low levels, is anticipated. Non-performing loans and net credit losses could increase relative to 2021 levels.
• Consumer Credit Risk: If the economy grows slowly and job losses persist (as observed in late 2024), there could be an increase in credit losses on consumer loans. Specifically, credit card and auto loan delinquencies are expected to rise as consumers' financial situations weaken.
• US Impact: Uncertainty about the impact of US economic and tariff policies also adds a risk factor.

This outlook suggests that, while Mexican banking is starting from a solid position, it will need to navigate a more complex environment in 2025, carefully managing credit risks and adapting to slower growth.

The U.S. government's actions also have repercussions for the financial sector, particularly in its relationship with Mexico:

• Cartel Sanctions: The U.S. Department of the Treasury, through OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control), sanctioned Mexican citizens and entities linked to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) on May 1 for their involvement in fentanyl trafficking and fuel theft/smuggling.
• FinCEN Alert: The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has issued an alert urging financial institutions to monitor and report suspicious activity related to cartel-related smuggling of stolen oil from Mexico into the U.S.

These actions place a greater burden of compliance and scrutiny on financial institutions operating in the border region or conducting transactions with entities potentially linked to these illicit activities. They must strengthen their due diligence and reporting mechanisms to avoid becoming involved in money laundering or other illegal operations.

"Financial stability requires constant vigilance. Actions against illicit financing are crucial, but they also increase operational complexity for banks," commented one financial consultant.

In short, the financial sector faces a scenario where innovation (crypto) coexists with macroeconomic challenges (banking outlook) and growing regulatory and compliance pressures (sanctions, alerts).

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