Will Emilia Perez win the Oscar? This is what the math says

Don't get angry anymore. Emilia Perez will definitely win at least one Oscar . Or at least that's what the math says.

The Hollywood Reporter did a probability exercise , considering a model in which, for each nominee, various factors are attributed to him, such as industry awards, critics' scores and betting markets, etc.

"The purpose of including betting markets is to try to capture any factors, such as breaking news, that may be on voters' minds. In almost all cases, the betting odds simply confirm what was already known ," it is stressed.

In this way, in the International Film category, " Emilia Pérez " is given a 44.6% chance of winning, 10 percentage points above the Rio de Janeiro-based " I'm Still Here ", leaving the German production "The Seed of the Sacred Fruit" in a distant third place.

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But, as the article also points out, probabilities offer no guarantees. And the scandals of Karla Sofía Gascón, its protagonist, may bring about a change .

"That might be enough to bring 'I'm Still Here ' back, even if it's hard for the model to fully explain this narrative," the article notes.

" Anora ", according to mathematics, would take home not only the Oscar for Best Film, but also for Director (Sean Baker) and Original Screenplay.

The mathematical model gives it a 52% probability, practically demolishing the other contenders, since the closest is “ Cónclave” , with 15%.

The overwhelming figure is due to the fact that the film has been receiving awards such as Critics' Choice, Producers' and Directors' Choice, since its closest follower does not have its director nominated.

Demi Moore and Zoe Saldana , for " The Substance " and " Emilia Perez " respectively, look like the clear winners in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories , with 52.2% and 89% probability.

In the male categories, Adrien Brody , for " The Brutalist " (with 68.5%) and Kieran Culkin , with " A Real Pain " (with 87.7%) look like the ones who will lift the statuettes for Actor and Supporting Actor , respectively.

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