The import boom raises doubts and concerns about the Central Bank's international reserves

Imports in Argentina registered a strong increase of 24.6% year-on-year in January 2025, driven by the elimination of the PAIS tax and the reduction of tariffs . While this growth reflects the reactivation of the economy and the increase in productive activity, it also generates uncertainty about the future of the Central Bank (BCRA) reserves.

“The increase in imports could generate additional pressure on the trade balance, affecting reserves and increasing financial uncertainty,” warned a report by the Cohen Stock Exchange.

The sharp rebound in imports is largely explained by the removal of foreign trade restrictions, which had significantly reduced the purchase of goods from abroad in 2024. According to official data, imports of consumer goods grew by 60% compared to the minimum recorded in May 2024, approaching the levels of October 2017.

The industrial sector also boosted external demand. Imports of capital goods increased by 52.8% year-on-year, accumulating a growth of 79% since August 2024. This figure shows a strong demand for foreign machinery and technology, but also represents a significant outflow of foreign currency.

However, the acceleration of foreign purchases is causing concern. “The imbalance between imports and exports, exacerbated by the elimination of taxes such as the PAIS, is putting the stability of reserves at risk,” warned the consulting firm Econviews.

Outlier warned that “import growth may be unsustainable in the long term if there is no significant improvement in exports, which could worsen the trade deficit.”

Despite the increase in imports, the energy sector became a point of equilibrium for the trade balance. Thanks to the boost from Vaca Muerta, the energy trade surplus reached 678 million dollars in January 2025, the highest level in recent years.

The upturn is explained by a 24% increase in fuel and energy exports, with the United States and Chile as the main buyers. In particular, demand from these countries grew by 54.2% and 35.9% respectively, according to the Ministry of Energy.

However, this surplus was not enough to offset the growth of imports in other sectors. Without the contribution of the energy sector, the trade balance in January would have been negative by 536 million dollars.

The impact of the increase in imports is also reflected in the trade balance with Argentina's main partners. The deficit with Brazil reached 481 million dollars, while with China it reached 1.25 billion.

According to INDEC data, purchases from these two countries accounted for 48.5% of total imports in January 2025, compared to 41.3% in the same month in 2024.

Although exports to these destinations also grew, the weight of imports was greater, consolidating a growing trade deficit with the main economies that supply goods and technology to Argentina.

"If imports continue to grow at the current rate, the prospects of a larger trade deficit are becoming increasingly real, which will put greater pressure on the Central Bank's reserves," warned the consultancy PxQ.