Mark Carney revives the Liberal Party and wins the Canadian elections.

On March 9, economist Mark Carney , an outsider with no frontline political experience, won his first ever election, a primary that made him leader of Canada 's Liberal Party and interim prime minister, succeeding Justin Trudeau . This Sunday, just seven weeks later, Carney won his second federal election, arguably the most decisive in his country's contemporary history.

Carney has made history, succeeding where other paratroopers, like philosopher Michael Ignatieff , had previously failed. In less than three months, he turned around a 25-point deficit in the polls , resurrecting a party that was sunk and adrift, without a leader, a program, or hope. He did it thanks to his profile as a crisis manager and expert. He did it with barely any time for a campaign, simply presenting himself as the best alternative for change from within a country suffocating from the economic and social situation. He did it, above all, thanks to Donald Trump .

The American president has been the decisive figure, something without parallel in the modern history of democracies. On Monday morning, after having remained silent for several weeks without openly interfering in his neighbor's politics, once his hated Trudeau had withdrawn, Trump pressed again as the polling stations opened. "Best of luck to the Canadian people! Elect the man with the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, free of charge, to the highest level in the world, and quadruple your automobile, steel, aluminum, timber, energy, and all other businesses, without tariffs or taxes," he said, asking for votes... for himself. "If Canada becomes the beloved 51st state of the United States of America, there will be no more artificial lines. Look how beautiful this landmass would be. Free access without borders. All positive, no negative. This is how it was meant to be! The United States can no longer subsidize Canada with the hundreds of billions of dollars annually we have spent in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a state!" he said once again, mocking the neighboring country.

Thanks to the Trump factor, the most repeated name of the night, the Liberal victory is indisputable , even if it remains to be seen whether it will lead to a solid minority government or not. The Conservatives, the favorites at the beginning of the year, leading in all the polls after the fall of Justin Trudeau and the internal divisions, have in fact had a better result than in the last 15 years, exceptional, with more than 41% of the vote and improving by at least 27 seats, which in the past would have been more than enough to win. But Carney has mobilized undecided voters and obtained many "useful votes," taking them away from the Social Democrats, the Greens, and even the pro-independence vote in Quebec.

"Canadians have opted for a minority government with little room for maneuver. Therefore, I congratulate Prime Minister Carney for leading this minority government," Poilievre said, accepting defeat with absolute institutional respect. Stopping his supporters from booing his opponent's victory, he affirmed that "tonight, we all stand together as Canadians. We will do our job. While we will fulfill our constitutional duty to hold the government accountable and propose alternatives, we will always put Canada first in combating Trump's tariffs and other irresponsible threats ... Everybody first, Canada always," he concluded his speech, promising to keep fighting.

At the time of Parliament's dissolution, the Liberals held 153 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Bloc Quebecois 33, the NDP 25, and the Greens 2. There were also four independents and one vacancy. Tonight's provisional results, dependent on the mail-in vote and the latest numbers from the territories that closed later, leave some uncertainty. The Liberals have risen to 164 seats, and if this holds, they could form a more or less stable alliance with the NDP Social Democrats, who won just 7, as their majority stands at 172. But if one side is in a tight spot, it would push them to be in the minority or seek precarious balances. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, accepting the very poor result (he himself had lost it), announced his resignation between laughter and tears, congratulating the new prime minister and advocating for "unity over hatred, optimism over pessimism, hope over all else."

In 2004, Liberal Paul Martin won 135 seats, 20 short of a majority, and the same NDP that now has 10 MPs won 19, just one short of maintaining the balance of power. This led to the fall of the executive branch, after much back-and-forth, no-confidence motions, and backstabbing, and the Tories regained power in 2006.

Poilievre, he had it made after Trudeau's collapse

Over the past two years, Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, had been building a strong, solid, winning candidacy. He had it made, after the progressive collapse of Trudeau and what he stood for. Due to the poor economic situation, criticism of diversity policies, immigration, and the erosion of environmental policies. Until Trump won the election and began to despise Canada and fantasize about annexation to turn Canada into the 51st state of the United States.

His critics and enemies have compared Poilievre to Trump. His tone, style, language, and character have absolutely nothing to do with the American billionaire's. But the agenda, the messages, and even the iconography were too similar. "Canada first," "freedom," "change." An anti-establishment, somewhat populist discourse, against bureaucracy and decarbonization policies, talking about regaining sovereignty, increasing the military, regaining control of borders, limiting immigration, and protecting national identity.

When Trump attacked the country, the Liberals came out in force, whipping up patriotism and national pride. They resisted, reinstated the tariffs, and didn't avoid the clash or back down. Poilievre, overwhelmed by the pressure of seeing himself as a winner and indecisive, didn't do the same, becoming the third consecutive leader of his party to lose to the Liberals . He opted for a much more measured tone, saying the Republican president was wrong, but without the same firmness. After more than two years traveling the country and laying the groundwork, he assumed he would win and that he would have to work with Trump for four years to try to lift the tariffs and get things back on track. And to do so, it was better not to irritate someone who cruelly attacked Trudeau day in and day out. The tactic didn't work.

Carney's victory has many interpretations and nuances. This was an election, and a vote, marked by patriotism, anger, pride, sovereignty, and identity. It was in no way an endorsement of the Liberal Party's policies or the legacy of the outgoing government. It was not an endorsement of economic or environmental measures. Carney, a former central banker, an outsider, has managed to establish himself as the economic manager, the expert in crises and hostile economic situations. But if recovering 25 points in the polls seemed difficult, trying to right a stagnant, unmotivated, angry, and disillusioned country will be much worse.

Carney is expected to name a new cabinet in less than two weeks and reconvene Parliament shortly thereafter to present a new budget that includes the promised middle-class tax cuts and legislation to eliminate federal barriers to interprovincial trade, a way to create a stronger domestic market and reduce dependence on the U.S. But at the same time, during the campaign, the new prime minister promised to immediately begin trade and security negotiations with the Trump administration to try to prevent the next round of tariffs on cars and components, expected on May 3, from taking effect.