Piazzetta Cuccia's challenge on dividends

Milan – Mediobanca plays the numbers card for 2028. This morning CEO Alberto Nagel will present the financial community with its revenue, profit, dividend and profitability forecasts for 2028, as a continuation of the 2023-2026 plan. He is doing so to make his data comparable with those already provided by Monte dei Paschi di Siena which incorporate the aggregation between the two banks, since the former has launched a takeover bid on the latter. Investors who will have to decide whether to hand over their Mediobanca shares to the MPS exchange offer will thus be able to make a homogeneous comparison. And, it is to be expected, the data that will be released this morning will be strongly positive, being in any case a projection of an industrial plan already in place. In the hope of raining down purchases on the Mediobanca stock and thus opening the discount between the two stocks which is currently at 6.2% and forces MPS to a raise to make the takeover bid attractive.

At the same time, Mediobanca has formally asked Consob to publish in the prospectus of the takeover bid what the impact on the bank's numbers will be in the event of adhesions of less than 50%. This case has been authorized by the ECB. And Consob could also force MPS to communicate a minimum threshold for accepting the offer. We will see at the beginning of next week what the authority's decisions will be.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the next moves in the game of risk are being studied. With stealthy steps, the French state, through its subsidiaries, has entered the shareholding of Banco Bpm with small shares, without anyone saying anything. Those shares will go to support Crédit Agricole, which already has 20%. If Andrea Orcel decides to withdraw the takeover bid on Banco Bpm, the institute led by Giuseppe Castagna could move in the direction of MPS with the idea of ​​creating a large hub that includes Mediobanca and reaches up to Generali. And which will have the French as strong shareholders together with Caltagirone, Delfin and the Italian government. Provided that the judiciary or the DgComp do not ruin the plan of conquest.