House sales are on the rise in Bologna: 1,596 transactions (+6.1%). According to Nomisma, a decline is expected.

Bologna, September 12, 2025 – Nomisma 's analysis of the real estate market depicts an uncertain landscape and "reduced growth forecasts," with potential inflationary consequences and "a still-tight supply, despite lower interest rates and loosening mortgage lending standards." It also notes "potential demand growing due to structural factors and a latent need that has built up over time."

Data released by the Revenue Agency recorded an 8.1% increase in residential sales in the second quarter of the year, compared to the same period in 2024. "Despite a decidedly positive change, it is believed that the recovery in transactions that began in 2024 after the sharp decline in 2023 has already peaked and is moving towards a phase of declining growth rates , coinciding with the evolution of mortgage disbursements and the expected stabilization of interest rates," commented Nomisma. On the rental front, the data confirm a modest increase in the number of new contracts (+1.5%) , driven almost exclusively by new leases in municipalities with high housing tension.

Real Estate Market Outlook: Nomisma

According to forecasts from the Real Estate Market Observatory conducted by Nomisma, the second half of 2025 "has begun under the banner of uncertainty, which, in the corporate market, could be reflected in greater investment selectivity and in their ability to generate stable income." The sectors that best meet these criteria are digital infrastructure, rent-to-buy residential, student housing, and logistics. In the office segment, however, investor interest is expected to shift toward the high-end of the market, consisting of quality, ESG-compliant properties in central locations, which will continue to perform well, with low vacancy rates and rent growth. Conversely, for the less premium end of the office segment, tenant interest is expected to decline, resulting in lower rents.

In light of the trends observed, the retail real estate operators interviewed by Nomisma confirm "a positive climate of confidence in the residential sector, albeit with signs of greater caution compared to the previous year."

The balance of opinions on sales and rental contracts remains positive, but shows a slight reduction, a sign of a market that, while maintaining good vitality, is beginning to feel the effects of macroeconomic uncertainties and the progressive weakening of household purchasing power, according to the consulting firm. Demand continues to be perceived as growing, especially in the rental segment, where housing pressure and the reduced availability of properties are pushing rents higher. Supply , however, is seen as further contracting, both for purchases and rentals, accentuating market tensions. Regarding the non-residential sector (offices and shops), operators report demand is still subdued and slightly declining, while supply is struggling to find a location, especially in less central locations or those with features that are not up to date with new functional requirements. The prospect of a contraction in contracts, both for purchases and rentals, reflects a market still seeking a new equilibrium.

Elena Molignoni , head of Nomisma's Real Estate Market Observatory, comments: "In an increasingly segmented market, with significant regional and typological differences, a growth in first-time home purchases is expected, while the share of new homes is declining, partly due to the structural contraction in construction. At the same time, the sector's tendency to focus more on preserving existing assets than expanding should continue, with residential redevelopment taking precedence over new construction."

The numbers on Bologna

Looking at data from the Revenue Agency's Real Estate Market Observatory, residential sales increased by 8.1%, with 201,344 transactions, Bologna closed with a 6.1% increase and 1,596 transactions . Sales values ​​increased in almost all major metropolitan cities, except Naples, which recorded a 0.3% decrease and 2,146 transactions. Among other cities, the largest increases were recorded in Turin (+11.3% and 4,325 transactions) and Palermo (+10.0% and 1,899 transactions). Milan (+6.6% and 6,491 transactions) also saw positive growth, as did Bologna, Genoa (+5.6% and 2,466 transactions), Rome (+4.1% and 9,839 transactions), and Florence (+3.9% and 1,273 transactions).

According to data compiled by Abitare Co. (a real estate brokerage and services firm specializing in new construction), prices rose 2.2% nationwide in June 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, with Milan leading the rankings as the most expensive city with an average price of over €5,000 per square meter. "The Italian real estate market, despite the climate of macroeconomic uncertainty, is confirming the positive trend that began at the end of 2024," comments Giuseppe Crupi, CEO of Abitare Co. "The share of mortgage-backed sales is increasing thanks to lower interest rates, and the forecast of closing the year with over 720,000 sales is solidifying."