Starmer's gamble on Trump appears to have paid off with UK-US deal - but the devil will be in the detail

On the politics, this is a win for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves. And a big one: just at the point he really needed it after terrible local elections and few signs the economy is going the right way.

For months, the prime minister has been doubling down on a chunky bet – that there were more benefits than costs to hug close Donald Trump, the most technicolour, unpredictable and contentious political figure of the modern era.

There have been moments when this gambit felt like a mistake, when tariffs were first imposed and not subsequently reduced for the UK and, separately, as a deal over Ukraine slid in the wrong direction.

This is also a win when it comes to timing. Not only have we beaten nations like Japan, which had reportedly been further up the queue, but this deal comes before the May 19 reset with the EU, which has always risked setting back British relations with the White House if Mr Trump took exception to strengthening ties to a bloc he regularly attacks.

But at 3pm today, when Mr Trump makes his announcement that the UK is the "big and highly respected country" to get the first trade deal of his second presidency, he will be able to claim this has paid off.

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It is a "substantial" deal, I'm told. Even if we only hear the heads of terms today, it will allow the prime minister to say he has saved jobs – an important boast at this uncertain juncture.

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The extent of the economic win will still have to be weighed up.

The question is: how much will it deliver and how much will it help?

The big question is how much it will be to help the (newly state-run) UK steel industry and the (fragile) UK car industry, which faces 25% tariffs for goods going to the US. Will they now be set at 10% or zero?

Another big question is whether the 10% tariffs on everything else heading to the UK will be reduced to zero – something government sources were playing down just a fortnight ago.

Then there's the question of what we have given in return - for the Trump White House surely will have demanded a hard bargain.

Ministers were not denying they would allow cuts to the digital services tax - a bung for billionaire owners of companies like Mark Zuckerberg's Meta, which owns Facebook, at a time when taxes are going up and benefits are going down in the UK.

Meanwhile, some UK sectors are likely to face additional competition – quotas of US food products are likely to be increased, even if food standards will not be lowered.

This is a win for patient diplomacy and for the Starmer approach to the White House over the EU shouting. He will enjoy the moment.