Vote of confidence: Bayrou faces the deputies, the editorial team answers all your questions

Why did Bayrou prefer to use Article 49.1 of the Constitution rather than Article 49.3 in his finance bill, asks Emma?

This is the question everyone has been asking since François Bayrou's surprise announcement of a vote of confidence! First element of analysis: the Prime Minister wanted to be in control of the game. That is to say, to decide on a vote of confidence before the budget debate, rather than being subjected to a motion of censure during it, in response or not to the use of Article 49 paragraph 3. In short, not to repeat what happened to Michel Barnier , who was censured in December 2024.

Second element of analysis: if he does not gain the confidence of the deputies, François Bayrou, who has long warned about the public debt, would leave "straight in his boots", after having defended to the end his conviction of a budgetary effort of 44 billion euros. Finally, third element of analysis: he could have believed it possible to convince the Socialist Party (attached to the same European budgetary rules) and the National Rally (anxious to appear as a management party) on the principle of such a budgetary effort, trapping them to find the modalities with him during the budget debate. In vain.

Jules wants to know, in the event that the government falls, the timetable for the 2026 budget.

For now, there's no change to the budget calendar: constitutionally, any government has until Tuesday, October 7 (the first Tuesday in October) to submit a draft budget to the National Assembly. In order for France to have a budget for the coming year, the Constitution stipulates that the government must give Parliament at least 70 days to discuss its budget. In practice, the October 7 deadline can be pushed back to the 13th, giving Parliament time to meet the deadline by sitting on weekends.

However, he will have to take the time (especially if he makes significant changes to the plan drawn up by François Bayrou) to seek the opinions of the Council of State (in particular to verify the conformity of tax rules with existing law) and the High Council of Public Finances (which verifies the reliability of the economic assumptions underlying the budget).

Where things would get complicated is in the event of dissolution: the 70-day period is then suspended and it is unlikely that, upon the return of the newly elected National Assembly, Parliament will have time to examine the budget in time. This would require, as last year, a special law authorizing the government to levy taxes, before having the budget voted on at the beginning of the year...

Michel wonders what the difference is between a vote of confidence and a vote of censure, since if there is no majority, the result is the same: the government falls.

Answer: You are right, Michel, these are two procedures for engaging the government's responsibility before the National Assembly, with the same possible consequence: the resignation of the Prime Minister and his ministers. But they differ in two essential respects. On the one hand, the question of confidence (Article 49 paragraph 1 of the Constitution) is initiated by the Prime Minister, whereas the motion of censure (Article 49 paragraph 2) is initiated by the opposition.

On the other hand, a question of confidence depends on the number of votes for and against, that is, the number of votes cast, whereas a motion of censure must reach the majority of the members composing the National Assembly.

Why does François Bayrou, like most politicians, refuse equality before taxes, asks Françoise.

More than equality before taxes, I think Françoise is questioning the progressivity of taxes. This is quite real in France, at least up to a certain point. A very interesting study by the Institute of Public Policies (IPP) published in 2024 indeed shows a real progressivity of taxes. A tax household with an annual income of €170,000 is thus subject to 35% tax on all of its income. And the progressivity continues beyond that: for the richest 0.1% (more than €600,000 per year), the tax rises to 46%.

It is beyond this threshold of the richest 0.1% that things get worse: due to lower taxation of income from assets compared to income from work, very high incomes gradually find themselves taxed less: the 75 richest households are thus taxed at only 26% of their income on average.

Economists like Gabriel Zucman have therefore proposed a differential tax to ensure that the ultra-rich pay more on their assets. However, this conflicts with the principle of equality before tax: if assets are taxed without any relation to a person's income, the measure put in place could be considered "confiscatory" by the Constitutional Council and censored. Gabriel Zucman assures that his proposed tax incorporates mechanisms to avoid being considered confiscatory: but we will have to see what the constitutional judge decides...

André-Marie wonders why MPs and former presidents of the Republic do not give up part of their benefits to pay off the debt?

The question of the "state's lifestyle" has been a recurring one in the budgetary debate in recent years. It is nevertheless important to recall the orders of magnitude: between the budgets of the Presidency of the Republic (123 million euros), the National Assembly (643 million), the Senate (332 million), the Constitutional Council (17 million), the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (17 million), the Court of Justice of the Republic (861,000 euros) and the Council of State (35 million), the "constituted bodies" cost less than 1.2 billion euros, out of a deficit of 170 billion euros and 1,670 billion euros of public expenditure.

" Compared to a company with a turnover of 10 million euros and producing 3.5 million in added value, this would be equivalent to denouncing a top management that would cost more than 2,200 euros per year in total... " confided one business leader. If we add the issue of the 434 operators, 317 advisory bodies and 1,153 national public bodies, a recent Senate report highlighted that a rationalization exercise would not allow us to hope for "540 million euros" in operational savings. Going beyond that would require cutting the public policies that these agencies support.

Can't François Bayrou back down, asks Pierrette?

No, François Bayrou can no longer forgo a vote of confidence. Parliament was convened in an extraordinary session on Monday, September 8, by decree dated August 27, with the agenda being a general policy statement before the National Assembly, in accordance with Article 49, paragraph 1, of the Constitution. It should be noted that while François Bayrou will be speaking before the deputies, Élisabeth Borne (the government's number two) will do the same before the senators (Article 49, paragraph 4), but without their vote being able to overthrow the government.

Ariane asks who exactly should express their trust: the citizens or the National Assembly?

There is no procedure in the Constitution allowing a Prime Minister to directly ask citizens to express their confidence in him or not. Therefore, it is not the citizens who will express their confidence. The closest thing to this would be, at the initiative of the President of the Republic, a new dissolution of the National Assembly and new early legislative elections.

As in any parliamentary system, the Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament—where the people's representatives sit. In France, this translates into the National Assembly's ability to overthrow the government. It is therefore the deputies who will express (or not) their confidence.

If François Bayrou proposes "tightening our belts" to fight debt, what are the opposition parties proposing, asks Bernadette?

Very good question! La Croix had scrutinized the various budgetary proposals of the oppositions (Socialists, Insoumis and National Rally). It should be noted, however, that the €44 billion "effort" plan outlined by François Bayrou is based on a "trend" evolution of state spending (that is, if no measures are taken to control it): a more classic calculation would give an effort between €20 and €25 billion (and therefore not far from the €26 billion effort proposed by the Socialist Party)...

La Croix answers your questions

On Monday, September 8, the Prime Minister will commit his government to accountability before the Assembly meeting in extraordinary session. Vote of confidence, fight against the budget deficit, fall of the government... La Croix journalists Laurent de Boissieu and Nicolas Senèze answer readers' questions this morning. You can continue to ask questions using the form below.