Retailleau or Wauquiez? The Republicans elect their new president with the Élysée in their sights

After three months of campaigning, the more than 120,000 members of the Republicans will decide on Sunday between the two candidates for the presidency of their party, Bruno Retailleau and Laurent Wauquiez , an internal election which could propel the winner into the race for the Élysée.

Members, who began voting online late Saturday afternoon, have until 6 p.m. to choose the candidate who will fill the vacant position since former leader Eric Ciotti chose to ally with the National Rally (RN) in the early legislative elections nearly a year ago. By midday, the turnout was 63%, according to the High Authority, which is organizing the vote.

It is the party's secretary general, Annie Genevard, who is also Minister of Agriculture, who will announce the results at the end of the afternoon at the Paris headquarters of the Republicans.

While Bruno Retailleau is the favorite to face Laurent Wauquiez, the voting method makes the outcome uncertain: the number of members practically tripled during the campaign, going from 43,859 to 121,617, without it being possible to determine who will benefit from these recruitments, led at a cracking pace by both candidates. "Advantage Retailleau, but a great campaign Wauquiez," summarizes a former LR who knows his former political family well.

But Laurent Wauquiez remains confident: "I'm going to cause a surprise," he told Le Figaro. A landslide victory would give the winner a powerful argument to launch a right-wing campaign for the Élysée.

A narrow victory, on the other hand, would complicate his task of asserting himself against rivals like Edouard Philippe, the favorite in the polls, or even supporters of Bruno Retailleau, like the president of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand or the mayor of Cannes David Lisnard . The latter is calling for open primaries on the right, while the Vendéen wants to limit the vote to LR members.

Laurent Wauquiez also refuses to hear of an open primary and has repeatedly raised the danger of "diluting the right in Macron's party" if his president had a dual role with Beauvau, citing "rumors" about an electoral agreement with Edouard Philippe.

The Haute-Loire MP has already taken the lead, calling for a rematch with Bruno Retailleau next year to designate the LR candidate for the Élysée.

"Please, let's not immediately have presidential obsessions that have cost us dearly!" replied the Vendée resident, who pledged to remain at Beauvau if he won, claiming to be "a political minister, not a technocrat."

Within the common base, we are closely following the election of the president of LR, a party which came close to disappearing when Eric Ciotti left and which has regained its strength after entering the government in September with one of its own at Matignon, Michel Barnier, who was censored three months later by the left and the RN .

His former spokesperson, Renaissance MP Maud Bregeon, expressed his hope on Sunday on CNews and Europe1 that "the future president of the LR would commit to maintaining the unity of the central bloc," seeming to lean more toward Bruno Retailleau than toward Mr. Wauquiez, who "looks more toward Reconquête."

A clearly assumed bias was taken by Horizons MP Frédéric Valletoux, who criticized the "campaign for nothing" of Laurent Wauquiez, a "man of tactics" whose "ideas we didn't understand." An offensive tone already adopted the day before at a meeting in Marseille by his party leader, Edouard Philippe , who reserved his attacks for the Haute-Loire MP.

"The French are not fooled by those who indulge in small-time Trumpism by dreaming of resurrecting the Count of Monte Cristo's prison camp in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon," quipped Edouard Philippe, in a swipe at Laurent Wauquiez, who proposed sending "dangerous foreigners" subject to an obligation to leave the territory (OQTF) to the island.

Laurent Wauquiez replied to him from Puy-en-Velay, where he went to the LR office in the department to vote on a computer: "What pleases me is that he understood that I would not do at the same time."

The leader of the LR deputies has pulled out all the stops during this campaign with very right-wing proposals. Elevating the ultraconservative Italian Giorgia Meloni as a "role model for the right," he advocated for a rallying of the right, ranging from the Minister of Justice, former LR Gérald Darmanin, to the Zemmourist MEP Sarah Knafo (excluding the RN and its allies).