Political speech, paper ballot, simple majority... how will the vote of confidence in Prime Minister François Bayrou take place?

This Monday, September 8, François Bayrou will present his government's responsibility to the National Assembly.

From 3 p.m., the Prime Minister will deliver a general policy statement before submitting his team to the vote of confidence provided for in Article 49.1 of the Constitution.

Unlike the now famous 49.3, which allows a text to be adopted except in the event of a motion of censure , 49.1 is based on a direct vote by the deputies . The latter must answer a simple question: do they or do they not give their confidence to the government?

Since 1958, the procedure has always been used by executives assured of obtaining a majority. Never before has a Prime Minister submitted to it knowing that he risked falling.

Paper ballot and manual counting

Following François Bayrou's statement and the successive interventions of the eleven parliamentary groups, the deputies will be called to vote. The vote will not take place in the chamber : each member, in alphabetical order, will place a paper ballot in ballot boxes placed in the adjoining rooms.

The counting is done manually , by scrutineers designated in each camp.

A simple majority is sufficient

For confidence to be granted, it is sufficient that the votes in favour outnumber the votes against. Unlike motions of censure, an absolute majority (289 votes) is not necessary . Abstentions and blank ballots do not count: they have an indirect impact, by reducing the number of votes cast.

In this case, the balance is already known: the presidential camp has only a little more than 200 supporters , while the opposition has more than 350.

Results expected around 7 p.m.

The vote count is expected to deliver its verdict early this evening , probably around 7 p.m. In the event of a rejection, Article 50 of the Constitution requires François Bayrou to submit his government's resignation to the President of the Republic.

Never before has a vote of confidence led a Prime Minister to leave Matignon. Barring an unlikely reversal, a new page in institutional history should therefore be written before our eyes.