Partial legislative elections in Paris: former LR Prime Minister Michel Barnier is the favorite against the left

Parisians in the second constituency, a bastion of the right, are called upon on Sunday, September 21, 2025, to elect their new deputy, in the first round of a partial legislative election pitting Republican Michel Barnier against Socialist Frédérique Bredin .

If elected, the 74-year-old former Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron will be the only LR MP in the capital, where since 2022 the 18 constituencies have been split between the left and the Macronists.

Her main opponent among the 17 candidates in the running: the socialist Frédérique Bredin, 68 years old, a former sports minister under François Mitterrand, the only left-wing candidate.

The outcome of the vote, triggered by the Constitutional Council's invalidation of the election of Macronist MP Jean Laussucq, is largely uncertain in this constituency of around 100,000 inhabitants spanning the 5th, 6th and 7th arrondissements, considered unlosable by the right .

The only suspense is whether or not a second round will be held, particularly given the risk of high abstention rates, as the election requires at least a quarter of registered voters to go to the polls for a candidate to win in the first round.

"The real problem we have is that no one knows we're voting on Sunday ," acknowledged Valérie Pécresse, LR president of the Ile-de-France region.

Michel Barnier has had a clear path in his camp since the withdrawal of Rachida Dati , who had threatened at the beginning of the summer to run against him, suspecting him of having municipal ambitions.

The mayor of the 7th arrondissement has finally thrown in the towel after being nominated by the Republicans for the Paris mayoralty, avoiding a fratricidal duel.

"Everyone is now in their place," stressed the former head of government, overthrown in December after only three months at Matignon, who appeared with the resigning Minister of Culture during his whirlwind campaign.

"Renaissance got screwed"

"I will be a demanding and loyal MP towards the new government," promised the former minister of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, several times MP for Savoie , on Friday during his last campaign meeting.

The Savoyard has lived in Paris for 12 years but is not registered to vote. "He will vote with a friend's proxy. He will register after his victory," his entourage told AFP.

Frédérique Bredin hopes to put Michel Barnier in a runoff in the second round (scheduled for September 28), based on the results of the 2024 legislative elections: the socialist Marine Rosset, his substitute, created a surprise by coming out on top in the first round, under the banner of the New Popular Front.

The former mayor of Fécamp, who sees her opponent as a "symbol of the government's failure" , also believes that the right's "manoeuvres" this summer will push part of the centre-right electorate away.

"Barnier sold himself out for a mess of pottage, he renounced his values ​​to serve as a stepping stone for Dati," lashed out the Socialist Party candidate for Paris mayor, Emmanuel Grégoire.

The opposing camp, for its part, insists that Frédérique Bredin is "the LFI candidate", as the Insoumis have not presented a candidate.

"I'm hesitating, we have two good candidates. Bredin was a good mayor of Fécamp, Barnier was good with the Albertville Olympic Games (1992)," Olivier Missofle, 69, a resident of the 5th arrondissement, told AFP.

The former Brexit negotiator has chosen as his deputy the mayor of the 5th arrondissement, Florence Berthout, from the Horizons party of former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe.

A deal that Renaissance boss Gabriel Attal experienced as a "betrayal" because he wanted the replacement to go to one of his own, an internal source told AFP. The presidential party "was completely fooled by the Dati-Barnier deal concluded behind his back," she said.

Coming to support Michel Barnier at his Friday meeting, LR leader Bruno Retailleau, the resigning Interior Minister, welcomed a " return of the right-left divide ."

On the right of the political spectrum, the LR candidate will face Thierry Mariani (RN) and Hilaire Bouyé (Reconquest).