Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella expected at a May 1st meeting in Narbonne

The aim is also to show that nothing changes on this 1st of May, a symbolic date for the party which had initially made it an annual tribute to Joan of Arc in Paris under the presidency of Jean-Marie Le Pen, before his daughter changed the format , between a "republican banquet" and wreath laying in the provinces .

Weakened by her March 31 sentence to four years in prison , two of which were suspended, and, above all, a five-year ineligibility period with immediate effect, Marine Le Pen immediately attempted to galvanize her supporters at a rally in Paris. But the approximately 7,000 people who responded to the call on April 6 were far too few to fill the square in front of Les Invalides, leaving the impression of a partial failure. The National Rally prefers to emphasize an influx of new members, claiming more than 100,000 cards, including 20,000 new ones since the Paris Criminal Court's ruling.

The Occitan meeting must also demonstrate the permanence of the party's strategy for the 2027 presidential election, with Marine Le Pen still claiming to be "the natural candidate." This "Plan A," however, is conditional on the decision of the magistrates who will hear the appeal of the MEPs' assistants' case, and whose decision is expected "in the summer of 2026."

The entourage of the unsuccessful three-time presidential candidate has made it known in recent days that if her ineligibility is confirmed with "provisional execution," she will immediately hand over to Jordan Bardella. This without waiting for a hypothetical decision from the Court of Cassation , as it seems illusory that it could intervene in time to be able to compete.

Until then, the RN faces a dilemma whose drawbacks it is already experiencing. Because if the party relies solely on Le Pen's candidacy, it runs the risk of appearing unprepared in the event of a legal impediment. Conversely, if it decides to evoke a "plan B" like Bardella, it fuels speculation about rivalry between the two leaders , and could even encourage the base to demand that the candidacy of last year's European champion be confirmed from the outset.

By declaring to Le Parisien on Saturday that "if (Marine Le Pen) were to be prevented from running tomorrow, I think I can tell you that I will be her candidate", the man who will be thirty in September provoked a few raised eyebrows among the Le Penist ranks.

And while the "boss" intended to stifle any controversy, she reminded journalists on Tuesday that she will be "the presidential candidate." The "plan B"? "If I were to be run over by a truck tomorrow, well, (Jordan Bardella) would obviously be the person who would be expected to replace me," she simply admitted, a way of further dismissing the hypothesis as a form of incongruity.

However, several questions remain unanswered. If Marine Le Pen is not sentenced on appeal to immediate ineligibility, but is instead found guilty of embezzlement and sentenced to imprisonment, the National Rally will have to choose between her candidacy, tainted by criminal disgrace, and that of Jordan Bardella, who has never been prosecuted in the court case.

Both leaders like to highlight the first-round voting intention polls for the presidential election, with each expected to come out on top by a wide margin, garnering between 30% and 35% of the vote. They will also have to overcome a persistent opposition ceiling between now and the election: facing Edouard Philippe, both Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen are credited with only 44% in the second round, according to an Odoxa study published Tuesday.