Confidence vote on Monday: how will this decisive day unfold in the National Assembly?

Starting at 3 p.m., François Bayrou will speak from the podium of the hemicycle for a general policy statement (Article 49, paragraph 1 of the Constitution), devoted to the state of public finances. Each political group will then send the speaker of its choice to respond. The leaders of the parliamentary groups are expected at the podium: Boris Vallaud for the Socialists, Marine Le Pen for the National Rally, Gabriel Attal for the Macronists… The head of government, who unlike the parliamentarians will not be limited in his speaking time, will then be able to respond to them.

This will likely be his last address to the Assembly as Prime Minister. The deputies will then retire for thirty minutes to the rooms adjacent to the chamber. They will be able to choose to vote for, against, or abstain, and some will, under certain conditions, be able to benefit from voting delegations, which in theory boost the number of votes. The result should not be known until the end of the day, around 7 p.m., or later depending on the length of the speeches, particularly those of François Bayrou. The debates surrounding his previous general policy statement, on January 14, lasted approximately five hours, without a vote.

Majority of votes cast

François Bayrou will trigger the 42nd vote of confidence in the Fifth Republic. The decision took everyone by surprise because he does not have a majority in the National Assembly. His three predecessors during Emmanuel Macron's second five-year term had not sought one, and the last one was Jean Castex in July 2020. The voting process makes the government's equation more complex than the motions of censure that François Bayrou survived.

These bills required an absolute majority of the National Assembly to be adopted (289 votes normally, 288 currently due to vacant seats). Monday's confidence vote will be decided by a majority of the votes cast. For example, François Bayrou managed to pass the 2026 budgets via a no-confidence agreement with the Socialist Party. This time, even if the Socialists abstained—which will not be the case, as they have clearly announced that they would vote against the confidence vote—the remaining opposition would be enough to bring down the government.