Bayrou, Bétharram, budget: five archives to reread before the vote of confidence

On Wednesday, November 13, 2024, François Bayrou will succeed the short-livedMichel Barnier . The MoDem president—whom the French press says won a resounding victory at Matignon— “has always been part of the French political landscape,” observes El País in a profile. “He was already a member of parliament when Emmanuel Macron was only 9 years old.”

“It was partly thanks to the Béarnais that Macron became President of the Republic [in 2017], and the latter has not forgotten him.” By appointing him Prime Minister, the president is confirming the “political rehabilitation” of the mayor of Pau after his acquittal in the MoDem parliamentary assistants affair. “A whiff of reheated food accompanies his appointment,” but Bayrou , “the spare tire,” Bayrou, “the last-minute solution,” is also “renowned for his intuition and his brilliant moves.” “He is familiar with Parisian palaces and the workings of politics.”

A few weeks later, the Prime Minister “has achieved little success,” observes La Libre Belgique : “his main achievement is having survived six motions of censure.” The 2025 budget? It was adopted via Article 49.3. And when Bayrou is in the spotlight, “it is most often in the context of controversies,” summarizes the daily, citing the embarrassing Bétharram affair , his trip to Pau rather than Mayotte after the passage of Cyclone Chido, or his comments on a “feeling of submersion” by migrants .

“He also seems overwhelmed by two members of his team: the ambitious Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, and the Minister of Justice, Gérald Darmanin. […] Both men are also making headway in opinion polls, unlike their weakened leader. Only 26% of those polled believe he would make a good Prime Minister. 'Never before has a head of government recorded such a low level two months after his appointment,' the pollsters note.”

In April 2025, the Prime Minister "is in the funnel," summarizes Le Soir. "Politically, tensions are growing within the common core," François Bayrou is troubled by the ineligibility sentence Marine Le Pen received, the failure of the pension conclave already seems inevitable, and "clouds are gathering with the Bétharram affair" before the hearing of the mayor of Pau by the commission of inquiry into violence in schools.

While the government "defends itself against accusations of inaction," notably with a text on active assistance in dying, "the refrain of censorship returns to haunt the political debate." Above all, Bayrou, "barely out of the quagmire of the 2025 budget, [must] prepare that of 2026."

On July 15, François Bayrou presented the government's guidelines for reducing a "Himalayan" public debt of 3,300 billion euros, including, reports The Local, "the freezing of all public spending, with the exception of defense; and – just to be sure of really upsetting everyone – the elimination of two public holidays. This would be an ambitious program from a Prime Minister in a position of strength, relying on a large parliamentary majority and with several years ahead of him."

But Bayrou has neither, and “his term could very well end with his attempt to pass this 2026 finance bill. What will President Macron do then?” John Lichfield projects: “He could call an election, but that certainly wouldn’t solve the problem. It’s more likely that he will appoint a fifth prime minister in less than two years. Only if this last attempt fails will he feel obliged to organize new legislative elections at the end of the year or next spring.”

But the summer will not change anything, and François Bayrou, on August 25, anticipating the censure of his government at the end of the budget debates, announced that he would request a vote of confidence in the Assembly on September 8, two days before the dreaded mobilization of the Block Everything movement . “The Prime Minister and the Head of State had carefully planned [this] thunderous declaration. But it is difficult to see how they will manage to transpose it into reality,” comments Dagens Nyheter, in Sweden.

“The Prime Minister’s message [to the political forces] is this: if you don’t come to the aid of my budget, you will be directly complicit in the political chaos and financial crisis that will befall the country. Only, he seems to be convincing no one.” This time, without the help of the Socialist elected representatives, the fate of François Bayrou seems sealed. “Everything suggests that the autumn will be eventful on the French political scene. Perhaps it will even lead to new elections. Which, ironically, could lead to precisely the financial storm that Bayrou claims to want to avoid.”