2026 Budget: François Bayrou, the unexpected “influencer” of Matignon

"Listen carefully," "I'm trying to look you in the eye"... This Tuesday, François Bayrou launched the first episode of a series of YouTube videos (which he wants to be daily this summer) to discuss the disastrous state of public finances. The goal: to convince the French of the necessity of the unpopular budgetary tightening presented in mid-July in order to achieve €43.8 billion in savings in the 2026 budget.

Faced with his recalcitrant allies and his adversaries who threaten him with censorship, not to mention the call to "block" the country starting September 10th that appeared on social networks, the Prime Minister is banking everything on "direct communication." Against all expectations, while his popularity is at its lowest.

"The idea is to give ourselves a bit of breathing room by bypassing the parties to communicate directly with people," explains Philippe Moreau Chevrolet, professor of political communication at Sciences Po. As one of the president's lieutenants sums it up: "To kill fate, there aren't 36,000 solutions. We need to indulge in a bit of traditional populism and continue to dramatize like crazy so that, under pressure from public opinion, the political class will reconsider its judgment a little."

In episode 1 of "FB direct," the name of his program, François Bayrou directly challenges the French by presenting them with this alternative: "the efforts we choose" or "the sacrifices we undergo." "It's happening now and it's you who will decide," he urges in this roughly eight-minute video with a crafty feel. And he hammers home: "Today, there is no tomorrow. We cannot postpone until tomorrow when we have reached the sum of debts of, listen carefully, 3,400 billion euros." A small dig, in passing. " All those responsible are going on vacation, well deserved . Which I will not do," he boasts.

But does François Bayrou, who is breaking records for unpopularity and distrust in opinion polls, have the means to achieve his influencer ambitions? "For him, it's just a win. He's not popular, everyone thinks he's at the end of his fixed-term contract, that this is his last day of school. So he has two options. Either he says to himself: It's over. Or he says to himself: Screwed for screwed, I'll go all the way with responsibility and education," analyzes a Macronist communicator. "He could say: I've raised the alarm. I've done my best. " Others, however, are very skeptical. "He has nothing to lose, but I don't believe it," says a ministerial advisor.

There is indeed a great risk of preaching in the summer desert (three hours after it was posted online, Tuesday's video had amassed a paltry 8,500 views on YouTube). Especially since the measures presented were overwhelmingly rejected in the polls conducted after his speech on July 15. "All of this is still a very, very complicated gamble. He's going to try to seek public opinion by explaining austerity. So, it's a suicide mission. But hey, it illustrates the man's fighting spirit well," points out Philippe Moreau Chevrolet, noting in passing that "he's going to compete with the president" in the field of "addressing the people."

"This is not a test of strength between the government, the powers that be, and the French people," the head of government, for his part, wants to convince, assuring that he is "open to all proposals." "We can only fight this battle with the French people," he insisted to AFP on Tuesday. "But on the budget, ultimately, we will have to talk to Parliament," said an executive advisor, who does not see how the knives could be put away in the National Assembly, where he is advancing without a majority.