2026 Budget: We explain what the government's planned gap year to reduce the deficit will entail.

While François Bayrou is due to present his plans for achieving €40 billion in savings on July 15, the de-indexation of social benefits from inflation is regularly cited as one of the ways to limit spending.

The idea is making its way into the public debate. While the government wants to achieve 40 billion in savings in the 2026 budget , the option of a blank year is presented as one of the levers to find part of the necessary resources. Invited to franceinfo on June 25, government spokesperson Sophie Primas confirmed that the subject was not "dismissed" . While Prime Minister François Bayrou is due to present on Tuesday, July 15 , the "broad guidelines" of the 2026 budget and its savings options to deal with the budgetary slippage, franceinfo attempts to explain the outlines of this proposal.

Normally, retirement pensions and certain social benefits are adjusted annually based on inflation, so that everyone's standard of living remains the same as the previous year, despite rising prices. A blank year amounts to maintaining at the 2025 level certain social benefits such as family allowances, social minima, the activity bonus, the RSA, the APL or even retirement pensions in 2026. This, in order to curb the increase in public spending .

In detail, a blank year can take different forms. It can involve a complete absence of revaluation or a partial de-indexation. The blank year may or may not be accompanied by a freeze on tax scales, which would lead to some households becoming taxable and others being placed in a different bracket. Local authorities may also see their grants frozen. The same can be said for civil servants' index points.

The question of the scope of the measure's application has not yet been decided, as the Minister of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin, stated on Sud Radio . But whatever the final scenario, the blank year is likely to affect many French people, explains economist Cyril Blesson: "In concrete terms, there could be a little more tax to pay and a little less benefit to receive."

The idea, while sensitive, is not entirely new. The freeze lever had already been used under the presidency of François Hollande: retirement pensions were not revalued in 2014 or 2016, notes the General Directorate of Public Finances . The same thing happened in 2018 under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron. The subject even came back to the table a few months ago, to finalize the 2025 budget. In 2019, a large part of social benefits had been revalued at a minimum (by 0.3%), well below inflation.

But in the context of François Bayrou's hunt for savings, the idea is regularly cited by parliamentarians in the government coalition and certain ministers, such as Amélie de Montchalin. The Minister of Public Accounts has said she is in favor of "a pause" on certain public spending: "I think that in the situation we are in (...) slowing down spending is essential. Everyone can see that there are expenses we can no longer afford."

On the Senate side, which was tasked with proposing savings to the government, its president, Gérard Larcher, described the blank year as a "serious avenue." The vice-president of the finance committee, Senator Michel Canévet, even expressed support for an extensive design of the system. "The idea is that all benefits paid by the State and Social Security will not be re-evaluated for 2026," he argued in L'Humanité .

The measure is not consensual and could even be described as explosive for the government. Due to its lack of targeting, the blank year has not won over all public finance experts. It is a "way of saying: 'I don't make the choice,'" laments economist Mathieu Plane. In the opposition camp, La France insoumise denounced "the worst of methods," through the voice of Eric Coquerel, president of the finance committee, quoted by Le Monde . In the National Rally, MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy likens it to "the zero degree of political management. If that's what it's going to do, we might as well replace the Minister of Finance with ChatGPT, who will manage the nation's accounts just as weakly," he also confided to Le Monde .

For his part, the first president of the Court of Auditors, Pierre Moscovici, said he preferred "a structural approach" to tackle the budgetary slippage. A blank year, "that would be what we call a 'one shot'. You do it once and then what do you do? While it is not in 2026 that we need to make efforts, it is in 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 at least," argued the former socialist on Radio J.

Politically, the issue also risks being perceived by public opinion as a simple austerity measure. Eight months ago, it was during the study of a partial freeze on retirement pensions that the censure of Michel Barnier's government was triggered . Enough to give his successor cold sweats.

For the Minister of Public Accounts, the question remains open. "Is it about social benefits? Is it about tax scales? Is it about grants to local authorities? Is it about payments and aid to businesses?" she asked. "This year of rest should be more or less long."

The rule seems simple, but numerous exceptions are likely to quickly complicate it, economist Cyril Blesson points out. "First, [France's] debt interest cannot be frozen. Regarding defense, we have made a commitment to our European partners and to NATO to increase our spending," he argues.

"On paper, you're making savings that match inflation, but in detail, you see that this won't apply to the entire expenditure."

Mathieu Plane, Deputy Director at OFCE

to franceinfo

A message was received from Gérard Larcher, the President of the Senate, who told AFP: "Some things can be frozen easily, others less so. I'm thinking of sovereign affairs, which must remain outside the budget." Several programming laws, concerning defense , the interior, and justice, have already planned for spending increases in 2026.

Initial estimates are underway, but the scheme will be far from sufficient to meet the €40 billion savings target. The Banque de France predicts a price increase of around 1.4% next year, a fairly moderate inflation rate, which would mathematically limit the impact of the measure. According to an estimate by the Institute of Public Policy (IPP), the scheme would generate a budgetary gain of €5.7 billion if the blank year involved a freeze on pensions, the income tax scale, and social benefits. "This measure would represent (...) €3 billion from the freeze on retirement pensions, €1.4 billion from the freeze on income tax parameters, and €1.3 billion from the freeze on social benefits," the institute details in its report, consulted by AFP. According to the same figure, 3.2% of households would then see their standard of living decrease by at least 1%.