The chances of the Soviet spacecraft hitting Spain: Here's what scientists say

A Soviet spacecraft launched into space more than 50 years ago is about to make an uncontrolled impact with our planet. Known as Cosmos 482, it is estimated to re-enter Earth's atmosphere sometime this Saturday morning, May 10, 2025. The crash is imminent, and a 495-kilogram craft is headed directly toward us.

"The descent craft was detected by radar systems over Germany at approximately 04:30 UTC and 06:04 UTC, corresponding to 06:30 CEST and 08:04 CEST, respectively. There is no further information on the estimated re-entry window, as we are approximately in the center, corresponding to the red COIW (center of impact window) dot on the ground trajectory plot below," is the latest information we have from the European Space Agency's Space Debris Office.

NASA scientists and experts explain that the Cosmos 482 spacecraft separated into four components; two of them remained in orbit only to fall back 48 hours later, and the other two, believed to be the lander and a detached upper section , rose into a higher orbit. It is precisely these latter components that threaten to crash into our planet in an uncontrolled and slightly disconcerting manner.

Jonathan McDowell is an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and maintains a public catalog of space objects. McDowell spoke with The New York Times about the likelihood of this craft impacting Earth and where it is supposed to do so. Although the probe was headed for Venus, the expert assures that "it's now going to have its atmospheric entry moment, albeit on the wrong planet."

Numerous experts affirm that there is a possibility that Cosmos 482 could impact Spain, but with some nuances. Our country is located in the geographic area where the spacecraft could re-enter , but that does not mean there is a high probability of impact. The European Space Agency explains that "the risk area is extensive and most of it is comprised of oceans and uninhabited regions."

Cosmos 482 moves through space at more than 27,300 kilometers per hour, and will maintain that speed until atmospheric friction slows it down. So a mistiming, even by half an hour, means the spacecraft re-enters more than half a world away, in a different location. McDowll assures us that no one knows where the craft will land, "and we won't know until afterward."