The PSOE plummets in the July CIS poll following the Cerdán case, the PP makes no progress, and Vox soars.

The PSOE maintains its lead in voting intentions in July, according to the latest survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) , although it has significantly reduced its lead over the PP to almost equal terms, with a difference of just half a point.

This latest poll highlights the voter disapproval of the PSOE, but the Popular Party (PP) is failing to capitalize on the scandal and, in fact, is down 0.8 points, while Vox is experiencing the largest gain of any political party across the political spectrum.

The July Opinion Barometer conducted by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) maintains the PSOE as the leading force with an estimated 27% vote compared to the PP's 26.5% , leaving the difference between the two at just half a percentage point.

The PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) experienced a significant drop of 7.3 points compared to the survey conducted the previous month , when it obtained an estimated 34.3% vote. The PP, meanwhile, recorded a less pronounced decline, dropping 0.8 points from 27.3% in June to its current 26.5%.

The party led by Feijóo appears ahead of the PSOE in direct voting intention (what is known as uncooked vote, that is, when the citizen is asked directly which party they would vote for if there were general elections now, without taking into account other variables such as previous vote, sympathies, etc.).

When the survey was conducted at the time (4,018 interviews between July 1 and 7, 2025), 18.8% of those interviewed by the CIS said they would vote for the PP, while 18.3% said they would vote for the Socialists .

Vox is expected to consolidate its position as the third most popular political party, with 18.9% of the vote, having advanced 5.7 points compared to the previous poll. Sumar remains in fourth place with 7.8% of the vote (up 0.8 points). Podemos remains at 4.4%, after a 0.2% increase, and Alvise's party, Se hace último momento (The Party Is Over) (SALF), also gains 0.02% of the vote, with 1.7% of the vote. ERC rises from 1.4% to 2.1%. EH Bildu 's support falls from 1.2% to 0.9%, while Junts's support falls from 1.1% to 1%. The PNV ( Basque Nationalist Party) registers a slight increase, from 0.6% to 0.8%, as does the BNG ( Nationalist Party), which rises from 0.6% to 0.7%.

Sánchez, the preferred leader, and Feijóo almost the same as Abascal

The survey also asks about Spaniards' preferred leader as Prime Minister , and 22.5% responded that it was the Secretary General of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), Pedro Sánchez , while 11.4% cited the leader of the PP (People's Party), Alberto Núñez Feijóo ; and 11.3% cited the president of Vox (Vox), Santiago Abascal .

The president of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, is in fourth place , with 5.7% mentioning her, followed by the second vice president Yolanda Díaz (3.6%), the ERC spokesperson in Congress, Gabriel Rufián (1.7%), the leader of Se Acabó la Fiesta (The Party's Over ) Alvise Pérez (1.3%), the leader of Podemos Irene Montero (1%) and the president of Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page (0.5%).

In terms of the assessment of leaders, none pass, and Sánchez gets the highest score (3.99), ahead of Yolanda Díaz (3.97), Feijóo (3.83), and Abascal (3.15). When asked about the confidence they inspire in the current Prime Minister , 73.6% of citizens responded with little or none, and 25.1% with a lot or quite a lot. When asked the same question in the case of Feijóo, 78.1% answered that they have little or no confidence in him, and 20.8% that they trust him a lot or quite a lot.

Regarding the assessment of Sánchez's cabinet, the Minister of Social Rights, Pablo Bustinduy , is the most highly rated minister and the only one who approves, along with his counterpart in Economy, Carlos Cuerpo , and they are the only ones approved by citizens, with scores of 5.1 and 5 out of 10, respectively.

The rest of the members of the Executive fail, as is usual in this type of survey: the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles , gets a 4.6; ahead of the Minister of Culture, Ernest Urtasun , with a 4.5; the Third Vice President and Minister of Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen , with a 4.4; the Minister of Youth and Children, Sira Rego , with a 4.4; and the Minister of Industry, Jordi Hereu , with a 4.3, barely equal to Diana Morant (Science and Universities) and Mónica García (Health) . José Manuel Albares (Foreign Affairs), the Second Vice President and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz , and Elma Sáiz (Inclusion and Social Security), get a 4.2, give or take a hundredth of a point.

Pilar Alegría, Minister of Education and Government Spokesperson, receives a score of 4.1, while Luis Planas, Minister of Agriculture; Isabel Rodríguez, head of Housing; and Ana Redondo, get a 4. Six ministers do not receive this score: the Minister of Transport, Óscar Puente (3.91); the Minister of Justice and the Presidency, Félix Bolaños (3.90); the First Vice President, María Jesús Montero ; and the Minister of Digital Transformation, Óscar López (both with 3.88); the Minister of Territorial Policy, Ángel Víctor Torres (3.79); and the Minister of the Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska (3.66), who is the minister least positively rated by citizens.

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