The latest polls show the Libertarians ahead in the Province, but even the Government has doubts.

Few districts function as well as the province of Buenos Aires as a thermometer of the new rift , one that has President Javier Milei at the center of the stage, with Kirchnerism as the main opposition space.

The 2023 presidential election has already provided an interesting starting point . While Sergio Massa won comfortably in the first round (42.9% to 25.7%), he barely managed to stay ahead in the runoff (50.7% to 49.3%). In a matter of weeks , the gap of more than 17 points was reduced to less than 2 .

Therefore, it came as no surprise that the premature polls to measure voting intentions in Buenos Aires province for 2025 placed Kirchnerism/Unión por la Patria in the lead, but by narrow margins. As the months passed, that difference first equaled the margin of error, leading to talk of a technical tie; and then the Libertarians took the lead directly .

This scenario of the government's electoral advantage in the Province is what the latest five polls accessed by Clarín showed. They are from the consulting firms Management & Fit , Pulso Research , Mercados & Estrategia , Jorge Giacobbe , and Isasi-Burdman , which surveyed this race for space in May and June.

Another sign in favor of the government is that La Libertad Avanza has begun to appear in first place, even when measured separately from PRO. In any case, most analysts agree on this point: Macri's votes, if there's an agreement, will go almost 100% to the Libertarians. The anti-K Party bias continues to weigh heavily there.

And regarding these negotiations, everything is on track for both right-wing forces to run together in the local elections on September 7. The majority of the alliance (and the main seats in the electoral divisions) would be reserved for the Libertarians.

The latest polls have given LLA a lead over Peronist K- 19 parties, ranging from 1 to 10 points. The firm with the fewest leads was Isasi-Burdman (37% to 36%), paradoxically one of the consulting firms that tends to give the government the best results. The firm with the largest lead was Management & Fit (40.2% to 30.2%).

In the middle were Jorge Giacobbe (39.1% to 33%, 6.1 points gap), Pulso Research (34.1% to 25.8%, 8.3) and Mercados & Estrategia (31.8% to 23.4%, 8.4).

There are (at least) two issues to consider.

1) The number of undecided voters remaining , since neither alliances nor candidates have been defined yet.

2) How Peronism will close the gap . Axel Kicillof called for unity this Sunday . It's understandable: if the governor and La Cámpora go it alone, they're headed for certain defeat.

Quite a bit of this is precisely what the latest study by Markets & Strategy showed. On the one hand, La Libertad Avanza (31.8%) and the PRO (11.8%) combined for 43.6%. On the other hand, three branches of Peronism reached 48.6%: 23.4% for Kicillof's Movimiento del Futuro (Movement for the Future) + 19.2% for Kirchnerism/La Cámpora + 6.3% for Right-Wing Peronism (Moreno and Cúneo).

More in line with these numbers than with the idea that all the polls are showing them ahead, the government is showing caution and is even preparing to celebrate a narrow defeat.

"It's not that simple to beat the united Peronists. Therefore, beyond what these polls say and the optimism of some members of our party, we don't believe it's that simple or that a victory on September 7 is guaranteed ," a senior ruling party source concluded when asked by Clarín .