Sánchez and expectations

All eyes are on Pedro Sánchez. The prime minister is expected to once again pull an ace up his sleeve to calm the PSOE and his voters, following the imprisonment of the party's number three, Santos Cerdán, for alleged corruption. Sánchez's political career is riddled with unexpected twists and turns, so anything less would disappoint his followers and detractors alike. Moreover, if there are no surprises that act as a catalyst, many will interpret this as a sign that the resilient leader is no longer so resilient, that he is running out of power to get out of trouble.

Since the UCO report, which revealed Cerdán as a common criminal, became known, Sánchez has held intensive consultations with his team and trusted individuals. He has ruled out several options, but always with the expectation that he can reinstate them if things become even more complicated. It is well known that Sánchez can "change his mind" if circumstances warrant it.

Neither the PSOE nor the Moncloa expected Cerdán to go to jail on the same day as his first statement before the Supreme Court judge. Now they assume there will be more compromising images. It's almost certain that the Civil Guard will end up searching the PSOE headquarters, for example. All of this without taking into account possible new revelations that could affect other Socialist officials or the party.

Cerdán's imprisonment has unleashed a wave of interpretations among the Socialists. Some believe the judge is trying to get the victim to back down. Others, however, suggest the real objective is not so much to soften Cerdán , who is said to be a colder figure, but rather José Luis Ábalos, who is more temperamental. The former minister is aware that he could end up in prison at any moment. In fact, he even considered a deal with the Prosecutor's Office. In a trio of people involved, the prisoner's dilemma suggests that one of them will succumb.

The order to imprison Cerdán is based on the credibility the investigator places on Koldo García's recordings of his accomplices' dealings. While this is a serious indication, it would be incomplete evidence in a trial. There is also the contract signed by Cerdán to acquire part of the Servinabar company, which was used to bid on irregular contracts. The investigation needs to provide more evidence, but it would make things much easier for the judge if one of those involved were to confess.

While they hold their breath over the outcome of the legal proceedings, the PSOE expects some revelation from Sánchez this Saturday at the PSOE federal committee. However, the socialist leader doesn't seem to be considering any drastic measures. Rather, he prefers to hold his own for whatever may come.

There is considerable consensus among Sánchez's entourage that a simple change in the organizational secretariat is not enough. There is talk of a revamp of the executive branch, which was inaugurated just seven months ago, which would affect between four and ten people. Sánchez has also been presented with proposals to tighten the party's code of ethics, implement compliance practices, and design an organizational chart in which a deputy secretary and an organizational secretary counterbalance (and monitor) each other. All of these are inbred measures, aimed primarily at the membership, and it is doubtful that they will be convincing to the majority of the population.

Among the names being considered for the position of organizational secretary is Montserrat Mínguez of the PSC (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party). Only the president currently knows the design of the new executive, but the Catalan socialists, despite their unconditional support for Sánchez, do not want such an organizational involvement in the PSOE.

Sánchez is not convinced by an extraordinary congress: the party would not emerge more united in the face of possible elections.

Several voices within the PSOE are insisting on calling an extraordinary congress to invest Sánchez with authority. They are convinced that the critics are a minority, primarily a few "old glories," but for now the prime minister is reluctant. Even if Sánchez were to win again, it is unlikely he would achieve the same level of support he had at the last congress, and such a meeting would open divisions within local and regional groups over the advisability of renewing the general secretary. If Sánchez is determined to run in the next general elections, he will want to do so with the most controlled and aligned party possible, which is what he has now.

The prospect of early elections becomes a permanent concern from now on. More than a question of confidence, Podemos would hold the upper hand until the last second. If until now the slogan was that this government would complete its term, now it's difficult to convince anyone that this will be feasible. Sumar's partners are increasingly nervous about sharing a government with a party whose number three has just been imprisoned, while their parliamentary allies neither want to facilitate a vote of no confidence by the PP nor to come away unscathed from their contact with the PSOE.

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