'The probability is high': Gustavo Bolívar on possible presidential candidacy

Following the publication of press reports that he was leaving the Department of Social Prosperity to run for president, Gustavo Bolívar clarified in a video on his social media that, for now, he is still waiting for President Gustavo Petro to accept his resignation letter, which will determine his possible candidacy.

"Since February 10, the President of the Republic has had my resignation letter in his hands, but to date I have not yet received a response from him. The second piece of news that is circulating, whether or not I will be a presidential candidate, depends a lot on that response," he said.

Bolívar is referring to the formal resignation he submitted at the request of President Petro, after the televised cabinet meeting.

The current DPS director added in the video that, although he does not yet have the president's approval, his presidential aspiration is getting closer.

"The probability is high, I'm being honest with you, especially given the results of the polls, where I have been growing since October: I started with four points, then I went to six, in others to nine, and in the last one I reached exactly 11.9," he added.

As Bolívar points out, in the most recent survey by Guarumo and Ecoanalítica by Vicky Dávila, the director of the DPS and Sergio Fajardo lead the voting intention for the presidential elections.

The survey, conducted between February 10 and 13, 2025, asked Colombians who they would vote for in a 'hypothetical scenario of possible candidates for the presidency of the Republic in 2026'.

The results showed that journalist Vicky Dávila leads the voting intention with 15.1 percent. She is followed by Bolívar, with 11.9 percent of voting intention; and the former candidate and former governor of Antioquia, Sergio Fajardo, who reaches 11.5 percent , according to the survey by Guarumo and Ecoanalítica, carried out with their own resources.

Legal Entity that conducted the survey: Guarumo and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS Resolution 4899 of 2023 of the CNE and Resolution 4905 of 2023 of the CNE.

-Legal entity that commissioned it: Guarumo.

-Source of funding: own resources.

-General objective: questions about favorability, perception and hypothetical electoral scenarios.

-Study universe: Colombian men and women over 18 years of age, of all socioeconomic levels residing in the national territory except for the so-called former national territories and the San Andrés archipelago and who have voted, for a total of 38,000,000 Colombians.

-Sample design: the sample design is probabilistic by stages.

-Sample size: 2140 surveys distributed as follows: Armenia (46), Barranquilla (149), Bello (37), Bogota (332), Bucaramanga (66), Buenaventura (43), Cajica (43), Cali (129), Cartagena (95), Codazzi (56), Cucuta (53), Dosquebradas (54), Envigado (41), Floridablanca (37), Funza (26), Giron (46), Ibague (49), Itagui (48), Jamuni (26), Madrid (33), Manizales (40), Medellin (107), Montelibano (26), Mosquera (46), Neiva (17), Palmira (30), Pasto (32), Popayan (50), Riohacha (27), Santa Marta (35), Sincelejo (62), Soledad (40), Tolu (77), Turbaco (33), Villavicencio (38), Virginia (30), Yumbo (41).

-Collection technique: in-person household survey.

-Collection Date: February 10 to February 13, 2025.

-Characters who were investigated: refer to the collection form.

-Margin of error: 95% confidence level. Total national margin of error 2.2%

-Sample distribution: the surveys were conducted according to the population census broken down by municipalities, socioeconomic stratification, locality, neighborhood, block, and population over 18 years of age.

-Sampling frames: National Population Census – Electoral potential.

-Specific questions asked: refer to the collection form.

CAMILO A. CASTILLOPolitical EditorX: (@camiloandres894)