The trade deficit with Brazil exceeded USD 600 million in August and is expected to reach more than USD 4 billion in 2025.

Trade between Argentina and Brazil again showed a significant imbalance in August , according to a report by the consulting firm Abeceb based on official data from INDEC. The bilateral deficit climbed to USD 614 million, well above the deficit of just USD 14 million recorded in the same month in 2024.

Thus, the accumulated negative balance in the first eight months of the year reached USD 4.12 billion, marking a USD 4.245 billion reversal from the USD 126 million surplus achieved in the same period last year.

Automotive trade was once again a key factor in bilateral relations. Abeceb highlighted that imports in this sector grew 70% year-on-year , resulting in a USD 322 million increase within a total USD 461 million increase in purchases.

At the same time, vehicle exports from Argentina to Brazil fell by USD 139 million year-on-year , in line with the overall contraction in foreign sales. This decline was partially offset by the agricultural sector, which contributed USD 55.7 million, primarily wheat.

Purchases from Brazil totaled USD 1.643 billion in August, a 38.9% year-over-year increase. Year-to-date, imports increased 49.5% compared to the same period in 2024. This represents the largest growth in fifteen years, except for the post-pandemic period.

The automotive sector led the increase: purchases of road vehicles rose 364.1% to USD 108.6 million . Passenger car purchases grew 94.9% to USD 360.2 million ; and parts and accessories grew 21.8% to USD 127.8 million.

At the same time, there was a sharp increase in electricity purchases from Brazil, which grew 137.6% year-on-year and reached USD 65.1 million, representing 4% of the total.

Argentine sales to Brazil totaled USD 1.029 billion in August, an 11.8% year-over-year drop that added to the 8.2% decline recorded in July. In the first eight months of the year, they accumulated a decline of 1.6%.

The automotive sector accounted for most of this contraction: shipments of freight vehicles fell 24.3% and passenger car shipments 26.5% . Exports of parts and accessories fell 8%.

Agriculture was the only sector with a positive trend, with wheat standing out, growing 107% to USD 107.7 million. Dairy products grew 18.6% to USD 34.1 million.

According to Abeceb, a reversal of the bilateral deficit is not expected for the remainder of 2025. The consulting firm projects the negative balance to be between USD 6 billion and 6.5 billion by the end of the year.

The report warns that import growth will continue to be driven by economic opening and the recovery of activity, although the recent depreciation of the peso and the slowdown in the labor market could moderate the imbalance.

Externally, Brazil faces a more moderate growth scenario, with high interest rates and deteriorating real wages. Furthermore, the real has appreciated 9.5% so far this year , factors that also affect bilateral relations.