Pemex will no longer depend on the government in two years.

In two years, the Mexican government will cut the financial umbilical cord that binds the fortunes of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and public finances.

That's the plan that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has.

This means that in 2027, Pemex will no longer receive capital contributions from the government.

The goal is for Pemex to achieve financial viability and operational capacity between 2025 and 2026, reduce its financial and commercial debt, and consolidate its operational restructuring.

Pemex is paving the way to improve its credit rating and regain investment grade status. It will be able to grow without compromising its future, government officials say.

For now, a financial vehicle for 2025 and 2026 will be created within Banobras for 250 billion pesos, with public and private banking resources, which will cover all of Pemex's operational and financial needs for that period.

On August 5 (2025), the Pemex Comprehensive Plan was presented, designed by the Ministries of Energy, Finance and Pemex.

Luz Elena González, Edgar Amador, and Víctor Rodríguez stated that this plan guarantees Pemex's economic viability, under the principles of sovereignty, security, sustainability, and energy justice.

In general terms, what was presented today continues what was done during the previous six-year term, when the door was closed to international investment and the government decided to financially support the oil company.

The difference is that a financial vehicle is being created to provide Pemex with temporary resources, and a target date is set for the productive restructuring to achieve production and refining goals.

Priority is given to mixed contracts with majority participation by the Mexican government and to decisions made by the government itself for energy development.

According to the Secretary of Finance's estimates, Pemex's debt will decrease to just over $77 billion by 2030, from $97 billion at the end of 2024 and $88 billion, estimated for the end of this year, 2025.

The government's goal is to overcome Pemex's current delicate operating and debt situation in a couple of years, with majority capital from the government itself.

At the same time, it is doubling down on the refining model, boosting petrochemicals, and achieving fuel self-sufficiency.

We'll see if it gives good results in the long run.

In practice, we'll see whether such a model actually works or whether opportunities are lost by not allowing for greater international investment.

We'll see whether the move toward lower production, refining, and reducing gasoline imports pays off.

In the short term, the strategy is likely to be well received, as was the placement of pre-capitalized structured notes.

It remains to be seen whether the positive outlook for the meridian and long-range planes will continue.

Fracking, the novelty

Pemex CEO Víctor Rodríguez delivered the news. Mexico will focus on natural gas exploration and exploitation to reverse its dependence on the fuel from the United States.

In its new business strategy, the state-owned company plans to extract natural gas from all possible fields.

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) will seek to exploit natural gas from its unconventional deposits (also known as shale) as part of its new business plan.

"Mexico is an oil country, not a gas country," the official emphasized. "However, it has significant natural gas potential in both conventional and unconventional resources. Why not exploit its full potential?"

Rodríguez added other questions and statements: "Why not go where the gas of the future is and where it will allow us to have a transition?

He emphasized that "gas is the energy source of the future. We need that gas, and it must be domestic gas. We have to reduce dependence and we have to find that gas wherever it is: in conventional deposits, in deposits with very complex geology, in complex deposits at sea, on land, but we have to extract that gas."

It was striking that the change in regime also brought a shift in perspective regarding the technique of fracking, which was stigmatized and rejected during the López Obrador administration.

The intention is positive. Mexico has large natural gas deposits and must begin to pave the way for the development and exploitation of this energy source, essential for industrial activities and Mexican households.

Hopefully the resources will be sufficient and progress will be made towards the objective.