Russia proposes ceasefire in Ukraine and conditions for lasting peace

With a diplomatic tone seeking to calm the waters, but with clear demands, Russia delivered this Monday to Ukraine the long-awaited memorandum outlining its proposal for a ceasefire in the war that has devastated millions of people and redrawn the geopolitical map of Europe.

The Russian initiative, presented by chief negotiator Vladimir Medinski in Istanbul, offers Ukraine a choice between two ceasefire scenarios, both conditional on concessions that reflect Moscow's priorities: the recognition of occupied territories and a cessation of hostilities under international supervision.

The memorandum first proposes a two- or three-day ceasefire after the start of peace negotiations. This brief respite would allow for the recovery of bodies in the so-called "gray zones" and the exchange of up to 6,000 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers with Russia. This measure, while superficially humanitarian, also seeks to build trust between the parties before addressing the underlying issues.

Following this initial ceasefire, the text offers Ukraine two options. The first: to sign a 30-day Ceasefire Memorandum on the condition that the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdraw from the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, which Russia considers to be territories integrated into the Federation. During this period, Ukraine must complete the full withdrawal of its troops from these territories.

The second option remains shrouded in mystery, with a "package of ten conditions" whose nature has yet to be revealed. This suggests a negotiation process that is still open and subject to Moscow's strategic interests.

The Russian document goes beyond borders: it calls for holding presidential and legislative elections in Ukraine within 100 days of the lifting of martial law. It also demands an end to Western arms deliveries, a halt to "sabotage" on Russian territory, and a ban on Ukrainian military redeployment, except for agreed withdrawals.

Among the most sensitive conditions is the demand that Ukraine declare itself a neutral and denuclearized country, with no foreign forces present on its territory. Russia also seeks international recognition of Crimea, Donbas, and the so-called "New Russia" as an integral part of its Federation, a point that could become the biggest stumbling block for kyiv and the international community.

The Russian plan also addresses Ukraine's internal affairs, demanding respect for the rights of the Russian-speaking minority, the lifting of restrictions on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and a ban on Nazi glorification. It also calls for limiting the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, the release of political prisoners, and the normalization of diplomatic and trade relations with Russia, including gas transit.

Vladimir Medinski insisted from Istanbul that the memorandum "is not an ultimatum at all," but rather a detailed proposal that, in the negotiator's words, "allows us to achieve genuine peace, or at least a ceasefire with major steps toward long-term stability." According to his statements, Ukraine has pledged to study the text and respond shortly.

The memorandum emphasizes that the final peace treaty must be approved by a UN Security Council resolution, reflecting the international dimension of the conflict.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian issue is also part of the negotiations: Russia has pledged to return 6,000 Ukrainian bodies and expects the return of 6,000 bodies of Russian soldiers next week, in addition to an exchange of at least 1,000 prisoners of war, including all the wounded.

Regarding the reports of minors "kidnapped" by Russia, Medinski asserted that "not a single child has been kidnapped" and that it was, in fact, a "humanitarian rescue." He stated that Ukraine will submit a list of 339 minors and that each case will be reviewed, with the information being submitted to the Office of the Russian Human Rights Commissioner.

The path to peace between Russia and Ukraine is fraught with challenges, mistrust, and deep wounds. However, the delivery of the Russian memorandum represents an important step toward opening real negotiations and, although fraught with conditions, could lay the foundation for a future peace agreement that will change the course of Europe's recent history.