Data science and elections

Politics has changed forever. Traditional political acumen, strategic hunches and endless roadshows still have their place, but the real power in an election campaign today lies in data science. It is not a fad or an optional resource: it is the difference between winning and losing.

In the upcoming local elections on June 1 in Durango and Veracruz, where 404 and 1,054 positions will be renewed respectively, and in the election of 881 judges And when it comes to the election of governors and magistrates, campaign teams that master data analysis and manage to land their campaign strategies will have a significant advantage. But this goes beyond the short term. In 2027, when 16 states will elect new governors, and in the 2030 presidential election, politics in Mexico will have evolved even further into a terrain where data is the most valuable asset.

Data science is much more than numbers and graphs. It is a discipline that combines mathematics, statistics, artificial intelligence and programming to understand, predict and shape electoral behaviour. The data comes from multiple sources: surveys, official figures, social networks, search patterns, geolocation and even the analysis of language in political speeches. With this information, it is possible to design campaigns that speak directly to the voter, personalising messages with a precision that was previously unthinkable.

There are plenty of examples. In Argentina, Javier Milei used data analysis to identify the issues that most outraged society and build his outsider narrative. In the United States, Donald Trump took advantage of voter segmentation to strengthen his image as a “tough leader,” turning his attack into a symbol of resilience and emotional connection. His success was not born from improvised speeches, but from a calculated strategy based on data.

In Mexico, political parties already know this. Morena has deployed brigades to gather information directly in the field with structured surveys. While some political actors still rely on the same old tactics, others have already understood that the future belongs to those who dominate the data laboratory. Because it is not just about knowing the mood of the electorate, but predicting and shaping it.

The accuracy of analyzing emotions and thoughts of the population varies between 70 and 95 percent, depending on the quality of the data and the methodology used. It is not magic, it is science. Thousands of tools can be applied to design speeches, optimize mobilization strategies, evaluate rivals and even anticipate crises. Instead of relying on isolated tools, such as a hammer or a drill, data science offers a complete carpentry.

The reliability of data science lies in its constant validation and in the ethics with which it is applied. It is not about manipulation, but about accurately understanding what drives people, what worries them and what they expect from their leaders. Data science is not only used in politics, but also in health, commerce, sports and research. And its effectiveness has been proven in the most important scientific journals in the world.

The rules of the game have changed. Those who understand and master data science will not only win elections: they will build the future of politics in Mexico.