A tough group at the World Cup looms: That's why the German team must win

A tough group at the World Cup looms. That's why the German team must win at all costs. 04.09.2025, 09:46 Uhr

The Bundesliga season has barely started and it's already on break. International matches are coming up – and they are of great importance for the German national team. It's not just about securing a World Cup ticket, but also about avoiding potentially disastrous consequences.

Of course, Julian Nagelsmann's main goal is a win in the first World Cup qualifier in Slovakia. However, a win in Bratislava (8:45 p.m./ARD and in the ntv.de live ticker) isn't just important for the national coach for the World Cup ticket itself. A slip-up would cost the national team dearly in the FIFA world rankings and would increase the risk of a difficult World Cup group in the summer of 2026.

The German national team (1716.38 points) is currently locked in a three-way battle with Croatia (1707.51 points) and Italy (1702.58 points) for ninth place in the FIFA rankings. This will secure a spot in the top pot for the World Cup draw on December 5 in Washington – assuming direct qualification as group winners.

An early duel at the 2026 finals against top opponents such as Argentina, Spain or France would then be ruled out, as would being placed in the climatically and logistically difficult group of co-hosts Mexico.

Only one defeat can ruin everything

Nagelsmann has already emphasized the importance of this on several occasions. Germany is currently ranked ninth in the world rankings. They will have to defend this position in their two matches against Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg. The Netherlands (1758, 18) and Belgium (1736, 38) in seventh and eighth place, respectively, appear to be already pulling away.

The decisive factor will be the ranking after the qualification round in November. Until then, the German national team can lose a lot of ground with a single defeat due to the complicated calculation system. A loss in Bratislava, for example, would cost 18.07 points, but a win would only bring 6.93 points.

At least: Since Croatia will face weaker opponents in the Faroe Islands (+2.14) and Italy against Estonia (+2.51), they won't be able to reduce their deficit for the time being, even if they win, even if Germany also wins. However, they may have to wait until the final matchday in November.