Escape to Europe: Duration, routes, money - the path is so difficult

Getting on a bus or train in their country of origin and getting off again in the EU is how some people fled Ukraine. But this isn't the norm. The duration of the escape, the costs, and even the danger of the routes vary. And with every transit country that refugees have to cross, the risk of not being able to continue from there increases.

A survey by the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) of around 20,000 refugees in North Africa, Turkey and Southern Europe shows that some of those affected are on the move for only a few days, while others are on the move for well over four years.

More than half of Syrians took less than a month to reach the European Union. Among Iranians, the figure is as high as 61 percent. They mostly crossed only one transit country – Turkey. Ninety percent (from Syria) and 86 percent (from Iran) even made it there within a few days.

The figures for people from Afghanistan are more varied. Almost a third took less than a month to reach the EU, but just as many took longer than a year. Four percent had even been on the road for more than four years. On average, people from Afghanistan had to cross 3.6 transit countries on their way to Europe. They spent an average of four places along the way, and they perceived an average of 2.4 stops as dangerous. Nevertheless, 47 percent made it to Turkey within a month, and another 25 percent within three months.

People from Pakistan traveled the longest. Only 13 percent took a maximum of one month to reach the EU, but more than half took more than a year to reach it. They had to travel through five to six transit countries and stayed longer in around three places.

According to data from Oxfam, UNICEF, and MMC, refugees perceived the Iranian-Turkish and Iranian-Afghan borders, Turkish cities such as Izmir and Istanbul, Harmanli in Bulgaria, the border region of Croatia, Serbia, and Hungary, and the Bosnian-Croatian border region as particularly dangerous. Many refugees on all routes reported traveling only in groups due to the dangers.

People travel significantly longer on the various routes across the African continent. The situation is particularly precarious in the Sahara. Refugees are often crammed into the back of trucks or pickup trucks, driven through the desert at night, without lights, so as not to attract attention. If someone falls from the vehicle due to the narrow space or physical weakness, they are left behind. Accidents happen again and again; cars get stuck, drivers stray from the route, and get lost. People die of thirst again and again.

Far too many people crammed into the back of a truck in Agadez, Niger. This is where the multi-day journeys through the Sahara to North Africa begin.

Source: IMAGO/Pond5 Images

A report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) suggests that at least twice as many refugees die in the Sahara as in the Mediterranean. The number of unreported cases is likely much higher, and the dead are often discovered only by chance. "These people lie nameless dead by the roadside. These are deaths that are not mentioned in the debate in Europe," says Karl Kopp, Managing Director of Pro Asyl, the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND). He knows: "Many traditional routes have now been closed, which is why the paths lead ever deeper into the desert and are therefore becoming more dangerous."

When asked about places where they feared for their lives most, most refugees named Libya, followed by the Sahara, Niger, Mali, and the Mediterranean in fifth place. Those who survive the Sahara still have to cross the Mediterranean on their way to Europe. Around 2,500 people died there last year. "Not everyone we interviewed in Lampedusa saw someone die at sea. But everyone who crossed the desert saw someone die," said Vincent Cochetel of UNHCR.

Mali and Niger in particular are the converging points of various escape routes from West and Central Africa. From here, they travel to Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya on the Mediterranean. Gao in Mali, and Niamey and Agadez in Niger are three main hubs for various escape routes. In northern Chad, around the Bardai oasis, various routes from West, Central, and East Africa also converge.

Coming from West Africa, 16 percent said it took them a maximum of one month to reach the EU. 47 percent were on the journey for less than a year, 20 percent between one and two years, and 22 percent between two and four years. On average, they crossed 2.3 transit countries and made longer stops, for example, for work, in 2.6 locations. Respondents identified Agadez, Tamanrasset in Algeria, and the Libyan cities of Kufra and Sabha as the most dangerous places.

Approximately one in three refugees from Central Africa took less than three months to reach Europe, but 43 percent took more than a year. From both West and Central Africa, approximately every refugee traveled for more than four years.

Because crossing the Sahara is becoming increasingly difficult and dangers are looming in many transit countries, an alternative route across the Atlantic to Europe has emerged in recent years. Boats depart from Conakry (Guinea), Bissau (Guinea-Bissau), Ziguinchor and Saint-Louis (both Senegal), Nouadhibou (Mauritania), Dakhla (Western Sahara), and the Moroccan cities of Tarfaya, Tan-Tan, and Guelmim to the Spanish Canary Islands, about 100 kilometers from the African mainland.

In 2024, around 47,000 people managed to escape from West Africa to the Canary Islands on the Atlantic, as shown here to El Hierro. More than 10,000 died.

Source: Antonio Sempere/EUROPA PRESS/dpa

On this route, they sometimes have to travel nearly 2,500 kilometers across the Atlantic. According to Spanish authorities, around 47,000 refugees arrived on the islands last year. 10,457 people were reported missing or dead. This makes the Atlantic route one of the most dangerous in the world. The refugees mostly came from Morocco and Western Sahara, Senegal, and Mali. There are no surveys on how long these people were on the road from their starting point.

People from East Africa are by far the longest journeyers – even though they have to cross significantly fewer countries (three from Sudan and South Sudan, 2.7 from the Horn of Africa). 83 percent took more than a year to reach Europe. Only 1 percent of refugees from Sudan and South Sudan were on the journey for less than three months. Most, 36 percent, had left their homeland two to four years ago, with one in five more than four years ago. Due to militant and terrorist groups, unrest, and conflict, the journey is repeatedly stalled.

People from the Horn of Africa took even longer. None of the respondents reported taking less than three months. Six percent made it in less than six months, and another 11 percent within a year. One in five refugees from East Africa had already been on the road for two to four years, and 49 percent for more than four years. The refugees made or were forced to make around three longer stops on their journey north.

The Zamzam refugee camp in Darfur was recently severely damaged in the civil war.

Source: Uncredited/Maxar Technologies/AP

What's striking about the data is that for many, the journey within the continent was significantly faster than waiting for the crossing to Europe. From Central and West Africa, 45 and 46 percent of refugees, respectively, reached the North African Mediterranean coast within a month. From Sudan and South Sudan, the figure was still 30 percent.

There are - besides the mere distance - other factors that determine the duration of the escape:

The money

The longer an escape takes, the more expensive it becomes. The less money people leave their home country with, the faster they have to find (illegal) jobs to save up for the next step of their escape. Sometimes they stay longer in a place where they are relatively safe and can make a living – if things get tough along the way, they have financial reserves.

The means of transport

Wealthy individuals can travel more comfortably. Some refugees are able to travel parts of the way by plane because of visa regulations between the countries. Tunisia allows it, and Libya has allowed entry for many West Africans. In general, the more checks one expects on a mode of transport, the more difficult it is. Money also plays a role here: Those who can buy a fake visa can travel faster.

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The transit countries

"There is no legal or regular escape route," says Kopp. "Wherever states suddenly block access, there are shifts." Relevant factors include border controls or controls within a transit country, what penalties illegal migrants face, the overall security situation, and which groups rule locally and with what level of violence. If the risk is too great, detours around a country (or a region within a country) can arise, costing time and money.

"In 2015, people from Syria sometimes only traveled for five days because the borders were open," says Kopp, "but today it takes much longer." Since both Hungary and Serbia now have tightened controls, there's a shift. "The heavily secured EU border from Belarus to Poland is now a hotspot," says Kopp.

Niger is another example. For decades, the West African country allowed refugees from West and Central Africa to pass through. The city of Agadez became a hub for numerous refugee routes. An agreement with the EU and the military coup changed the situation. Niger is taking more rigorous action against human trafficking gangs. This has changed the previously relatively safe route through the Sahara, as fewer professional actors are active and the routes lead deeper into the desert.

Factor failed attempts

"We hear of people who, in some cases, only made it from Turkey to Greece on their eighth attempt," says Kopp, "they have been victims of multiple illegal and violent rejections and have lost months."

Every use of a smuggler costs money, even if the escape attempt fails. Survivors reported that smugglers charge between 500 and 3,000 euros for a crossing from North Africa to Italy. If the attempt fails, the money is gone and must be earned again.

Crossing the Sahara can be even more expensive—depending on the source, costs range from 1,000 to 6,000 euros. The dangerous Atlantic crossing costs between 350 and 1,000 euros.