Ukraine and Russia | Ukraine War: May 9 – Open Fire

The 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, the most important holiday for most people in Russia, is just around the corner. It's already clear that the Kremlin wants to portray Russia on May 9 not only as the liberator of Europe from Hitler's fascism, but also as a fighter against a current fascism.

A few days ago, President Vladimir Putin said at a memorial event in Volgograd that everything possible must be done to prevent the resurgence of Nazism, Russophobia, and racism, thus once again justifying his war in Ukraine . Soldiers from the Ukraine war are also expected to march in the parade on Red Square.

Ukraine threatens attacks

From the Ukrainian perspective, this is unacceptable. In addition to the propaganda implications, Kyiv is particularly concerned about Putin's proposed ceasefire around May 9. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the offer as "cynical," accusing Putin of wanting peace for his event so he could then continue bombing Ukraine. Russia should agree to a 30-day ceasefire, as proposed by the Trump administration, Kyiv said.

On April 30, Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Rada Committee for National Security, suggested a Ukrainian attack on the parade. He told Radio NV that his country had the necessary long-range weapons. "It's not a big challenge," Kostenko said. Zelenskyy echoed this idea in his daily video message and has since repeatedly indicated that he is prepared for such an attack. On Saturday, the Ukrainian president also raised the possibility with journalists that Russia could carry out an attack itself and then blame it on Ukraine.

Moscow speaks of terrorism

The reaction from Moscow was swift. His statements were a "classic threat from a terrorist of international proportions," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on Telegram.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described Zelensky 's rejection of the ceasefire as a "test of Ukraine's readiness for peace," which Moscow considered negative. At the same time, the Kremlin continues to refuse its willingness to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, as demanded by Ukraine and the United States.

Zelensky's counter-event failed

For Ukraine, the parade and a possible ceasefire are also a battle for initiative and the right to interpret the situation . Zelenskyy had invited European representatives to Kyiv on May 9 to counter the parade in Moscow. However, the counter-event has been canceled because all major European heads of state and government have canceled, the Politico portal reported a few days ago.

A bitter setback for Kyiv, which led to the threat of attack. Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, is deliberately escalating the threat of attack in order to shift the media agenda toward the peace negotiations and force Russia to back down, Ukrainian media report.

Ukrainian attack very unlikely

However, it's unlikely that Kyiv will actually send missiles toward Moscow. Rather, the Ukrainian leadership is acting according to a familiar pattern. Ukrainian civil servants and military personnel repeatedly philosophize about miracle weapons with which they can wipe out this or that in Russia.

Ever since the admission that the strikes against Russian and occupied territory are being coordinated by US troops from Wiesbaden, it's become clear that this is empty talk. This also means that the US will not allow such a strike. While Kyiv obviously knows where Red Square is, it won't be able to do anything without US intelligence.

Possibly US representatives at parade on Red Square

An attack would also be counterproductive from a diplomatic perspective. Around 20 state guests will be on Red Square on May 9. Attacking them would massively damage Kyiv's reputation around the world. Especially since they include Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Xi Jinping, two politicians whom Zelenskyy wants to bring on board for peace. Accordingly, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico dismissed Zelenskyy's attack plans on Sunday as "ridiculous."

And then there's the United States. A few days ago, the Russian military broadcaster Zvezda spread a rumor that a high-ranking representative from Washington might be present in Red Square. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was mentioned as a possible candidate. It would be a sign that the peace negotiations are not yet at an impasse. So far, neither Moscow nor Washington have wanted to comment on the rumor.

But if a representative of the US government were really in Moscow, Ukraine would agree to Putin's three-day ceasefire, writes political scientist Alexander Baunow for the Carnegie Center in Berlin.