Seven years ago, Donald Trump spectacularly failed a G7 summit in Canada.

What does the G7 actually exist for? Since Russia's expulsion in 2014, the group of states has seen itself as a community of shared values ​​among Western democracies, forced to assert itself in the growing competition with autocracies like China and Russia. How much of this common ground remains after US President Donald Trump begins his second term will become clear in the coming days at the summit in the Canadian Rockies. The heads of state and government are already arriving today for their meeting in Kananaskis – marking the 50th anniversary of the G7 under the most unfavorable circumstances.

With the outbreak of another war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, a new issue of conflict is facing the G7 leaders. While the US and the Europeans have assured Israel of their solidarity, they have not actively supported the offensive against leading military and nuclear facilities. A further escalation of the situation during the meeting is quite possible.

The Ukraine war and global trade are also on the agenda in the remote Canadian countryside, where Trump and his European allies have now drifted far apart. The German delegation nevertheless hopes for a "signal of unity." For the new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the summit is the first major test at an international meeting after his inaugural visits to his most important allies.

Immediately before the G7 summit, the US President held a large military parade in Washington – marking the 250th anniversary of the founding of the US Army, which fittingly coincided with Trump's 79th birthday. It was a demonstration of military might before the eyes of the world. And he's flying to Canada with precisely this martial imagery in his luggage.

The Republican has been in office for almost five months and has since been tampering with democracy and the constitutional system in the United States at a dizzying pace. He has also alienated one partner after another internationally – including with punitive tariffs.

Trump shocked audiences with public fantasies of taking over foreign territories. He threatened that the US could "take back" the Panama Canal, using military force if necessary. He also laid claim to Greenland and the Gaza Strip – and repeatedly called on Canada to become part of the US. Now he is visiting his neighbor for the first time in his new term and is likely to receive anything but a warm reception from the Canadian public.

As for Greenland, French President Emmanuel Macron is making a statement on his way to the summit. He is stopping off on the Danish island together with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

At his first meeting with Trump at the White House last week, Merz focused on avoiding potential areas of conflict. He intends to continue this course in Kananaskis. The first meeting with the US President was "harmonious," according to his delegation. "Now the next test is: How does it work in a team setting and how well can the G7 convey this team spirit externally?"

For Merz, it's also about asserting himself among Europeans and assuming a genuine European leadership role. He gained confidence for this on his first trips—especially to Kyiv and Washington. Now a series of important summits follows. After the G7 meeting, Merz will attend the NATO summit in The Hague and his first EU summit in Brussels later this month.

That depends on developments on the ground. So far, the US and the Europeans seem to agree not to actively intervene in the conflict. However, this could quickly change on the American side. There are fears that the Iranian leadership could also order retaliatory strikes against American bases in the Middle East. Then it would be virtually unthinkable that the US would not strike back itself—and the next dramatic escalation stage would be reached.

This would also be the case if the US were to actively assist Israel militarily in attacking certain Iranian nuclear facilities, which experts say are located deep underground. Trump is likely to decide which path the US ultimately takes in the conflict alone—without the G7 partners.

Trump's bold promise to end the war in Ukraine quickly has proven to be a pipe dream. Europeans now hope to convince him that his efforts only have a chance of success if pressure on Russia is increased.

For example, they want to further reduce Russian state revenues from exports by lowering the price cap on the sale of Russian oil to countries like India and China from the current $60 to $45 per barrel (159-liter barrel). The price cap was introduced in 2022 and provides for sanctions against actors involved in the export of Russian oil at higher prices.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will have the opportunity to once again lobby for further support in Canada. He is invited to a working breakfast with the G7 group on Tuesday morning, along with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

This is the second issue, alongside support for Ukraine, that is an absolute priority for the Europeans. If no agreement is reached by July 9, new, high US tariffs will, as things stand, apply to almost all EU exports to the United States – and the EU, in turn, would respond with tariffs on imports from the US.

To prevent this, talks between Brussels and Washington have been underway for weeks – although whether they will be successful remains unclear. Trump sees tariffs not only as a tool to reduce the American trade deficit, but also as a source of revenue to finance tax cuts.

So far, the EU has offered the US a reciprocal reduction in tariffs and the removal of so-called non-tariff trade barriers, such as different regulations and standards for cars. The EU could also offer the US the prospect of purchasing even more American liquefied natural gas and military equipment.

Because the US under Trump has deviated drastically from the G7's previous commitment in areas such as climate protection, development aid, and global trade, the heads of state and government intend to forgo a comprehensive joint final declaration. Memories of the last G7 summit in Canada in 2018 may have played a role in this. At that time, Trump spectacularly disrupted the meeting by withdrawing his approval of the final declaration shortly after its conclusion.

This year, only individual declarations are planned on the topics of migration, critical raw materials, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, forest fires, and foreign influence. Anything further—such as an agreement to increase pressure on Russia along with new sanctions—would be a major success.