Romania | Post-fascist reaches for presidency

It was widely expected that right-wing populist George Simion would win the first round of the Romanian presidential election. But no one had anticipated such a decisive outcome. With 41 percent, Simion clearly outpaced his rivals. The liberal mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, who ran as an independent, surprisingly came in second with 21 percent. This put him ahead of the establishment candidate Crin Antonescu, who received 20 percent of the vote and was supported by the governing coalition of the conservative National Liberal Party (PNL), the Social Democratic Party (PSD), and the Hungarian Minority Party (UDMR).

Former Social Democratic Prime Minister Victor Ponta, who left his former party and now received 13 percent, also received a large number of votes. Elena Lasconi of the liberal USR, who had managed to secure second place in the December election that was later declared invalid, was defeated without a trace and now landed below 3 percent.

The Romanian Constitutional Court banned Călin Georgescu, a non-party candidate, from running again . He had won the first round of the election in December, after which the Constitutional Court ordered a full rerun, citing foreign interference as the reason.

Georgescu election 2024 was no slip-up

The election result must now disappoint all those who assumed that Georgescu's victory in November was, in a sense, an accident that would never happen again. George Simion far surpassed Georgescu's result and also received significantly more votes than all right-wing radical and right-wing populist parties received in the parliamentary election in December .

The often rude, unstatesmanlike right-wing street activist George Simion was able to achieve an outstanding result, even without Georgescu's charisma and despite criticism even from his party's leadership that he was anything but presidential. Simion gained some notoriety during the coronavirus lockdown by organizing protests against it. Before that, he had agitated on the streets against the country's Hungarian minority and for the unification of Romania with the Republic of Moldova.

His Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR) appears not like a traditional party, but rather like the embodiment of international radical right-wing trends, with references to Romanian fascism of the 1930s. In its early days, it resembled a Romanian version of the Identitarian Movement; now it copies mobilization elements from Donald Trump's MAGA movement . And although Simion publicly distances himself from anti-Semitism, his demeanor is modeled on Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the leader of Romanian fascism. Other leading members of the AUR repeatedly make positive references in parliament, in books, and in speeches to Hitler's ally Ion Antonescu and other leading figures of Romanian fascism.

Simion top favorite in the second round of voting

Simion now enters the second round as the favorite. This is supported by his surprisingly strong performance, the weakness and division of his competitors, who are unlikely to unite against him, the loss of trust among the established parties, and the role of social media.

The election result must disappoint all those who had assumed that Georgescu's victory in November was, in a sense, an accident that would not happen again.

-

The fact that the front against Simion is not yet formed was demonstrated by the candidate of the grand coalition, Crin Antonescu, in front of the cameras on Sunday evening. He has already made no recommendation for the next round. Besides the conservatives of the PNL, Simion's opponent, Dan, will only be able to count his own party and the party of the Hungarian minority as reliable supporters. But that is far from enough for a victory in the runoff.

Election campaigns are conducted on social media

If, for example, Victor Ponta were to enter into an alliance with Simion and win over his existing supporters, Simion would already have enough to secure a majority. But even for the traditionally strongest party, the Social Democrats, the die is far from cast. While they have increasingly adopted a pro-EU policy over the years, in their early days under the first President, Ion Iliescu, they still struck a nationalist tone and sought neutrality towards Russia and the West.

They could renew this legacy for a cross-front, which would enable them to become the strongest party in parliament under President Simion and thus provide the prime minister. But in the end, the behavior of the established parties may not play the decisive role.

Hardly any other country is as active on TikTok and other social media as Romania. And this applies to all generations. In a recent report in the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung," a shepherd, standing next to his animals in a meadow, explained that he only gets his information from social media.

Simion's role model is Trump's USA

This is increasingly weakening the personnel networks of the old parties, especially the PSD with its numerous members and local elected representatives. This classic clientelism is now giving way to the international culture war between nationalists and globalists raging on social media. Simion is now the new leader of the nationalists after Georgescu, while Dan is becoming the hope of the liberal cosmopolitans.

The foreign policy of both candidates will be of particular interest to foreign observers. Under Romania's semi-presidential constitution, similar to France, foreign policy is the domain of the president. Nicusor Dan's Union for the Salvation of Romania (USR) sits in the Liberal group in the European Parliament. As president, Dan would align himself with the EU mainstream and continue its support for Ukraine. Simion, on the other hand, rejects this and is more aligned with Trump's US. He is also repeatedly accused of being close to Russia, but his party's core demand for the annexation of the Republic of Moldova to Romania is unlikely to find sympathy in Moscow.