Kashmir conflict: How things could continue between India and Pakistan

The good news came from Donald Trump: "After a long night of talks facilitated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE ceasefire," the US president wrote on Saturday, partly in capital letters, on his own network Truth Social.

A number of feverish reports and counter-reports followed. Explosions were reported from several locations in the Indian part of Kashmir. Vikram Misri, spokesman for the Indian External Affairs Office, stated in Delhi that the Indian armed forces had been instructed to "take tough action" if the incident occurred again. Islamabad blamed India for the violations: "Our armed forces are handling the situation responsibly and with restraint." Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reportedly even called a meeting of the National Command Authority, which makes decisions regarding the country's nuclear arsenal, for Saturday. The Pakistani Ministry of Defense immediately denied this.

On Sunday, the conflict that has held the world in suspense over the past week was no longer flaring up - but that does not mean that it is over. Kashmir , over which India and Pakistan have been fighting since their separation in 1947, will continue to hold the potential for escalation. What is now beginning is the battle for dominance. India is more or less accusing Pakistan of starting this conflict by sending Islamist terrorists to the town of Pahalgam, where they shot dead 26 Hindu tourists . How Delhi knows that two of the perpetrators are Pakistani nationals, even if they have not yet been caught, remains unclear.

The extremist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, whose offshoot carried out the attack, is considered in Delhi to be an extension of Islamabad. The powerful Pakistani military is seeking to undermine Delhi's control in the region and maintain an international profile on the issue of the subjugated, predominantly Muslim Kashmiris. For this purpose, militant groups are being trained and equipped in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Islamabad is acting as if it doesn't understand why it is associated with militant groups, even though there is no international doubt that Pakistan has a massive problem with various terrorist groups. It is unlikely that no one in the Pakistani security establishment had any idea about the attack.

Pakistan's narrative, however, is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to stir up sentiment with his anti-Muslim stance in order to win the regional elections in Bihar, which, however, are not scheduled until October. While it's true that Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consistently wins majorities through Hindu nationalism, starting a war over it seems far-fetched. The perpetual conflict over Kashmir was fueled by the BJP's fulfillment of its 2019 election promise to revoke the region's semi-autonomy. The idea was to encourage Hindus to move to the beautiful mountainous region, which, while tightly controlled by the Indian military, was simultaneously marketed as a tourist destination for Indians.

Indeed, the rapid near-escalation of this conflict also includes the use of modern technologies. On the one hand, attacks are carried out using combat drones; they cause precise destruction without even requiring troops to be deployed. Their rapid and anonymous attacks are like a slap in the face. On the other hand, the media has been unleashed by the widespread use of smartphones in both countries. News is constantly being reported on all channels, even though there was and continues to be confusion about the actual actions, damage, and casualties.

Due to the increasingly hectic nature of communication via the internet and social media, decision-makers quickly find themselves under pressure to appear strong and decisive when they see how majority opinions are formed in the rapid flow of news. The BJP, in particular, is highly sensitive to social media sentiment; the party operates a large department dedicated solely to online communication. The rhetoric on both sides of the border has become increasingly harsh. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Great Britain, Turkey, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have attempted to mediate.

Indeed, the region now appears to have escaped with a scare. In addition to the knowledge that a full-blown war would cause enormous damage to both countries, the efforts of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio were likely the deciding factor. This, too, is good news, because last week, it seemed as if the US wanted nothing to do with the conflict. Washington was an ally of Pakistan in previous conflicts, but is now a major trading partner of India.

"We commend Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Sharif for their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace," Rubio said on Saturday. Direct talks would soon take place at a neutral venue. Trump also praised the leaders on Sunday: "I will significantly expand trade with these two great nations, even though it hasn't even been discussed yet," Trump wrote again on Truth Social.

This development will be observed particularly closely in Beijing and Moscow. China has invested heavily in Pakistan politically and financially in recent years to expand its influence in the region. Russia traditionally sees itself as an ally of India. Those left out of all this are the Kashmiris, who will now be forgotten until the conflict erupts again. They demonstrated against terrorism the day after the attack because, above all else, they are interested in peace.