Iran believes a new war with Israel is likely – experts warn of escalation risk

According to government officials, Iran believes a new war with Israel is likely.

"We are trying to avoid dragging the region into another war, but the probability of a war between Iran and the Zionist regime (Israel) is very high," said Deputy Foreign Minister Said Khatibzadeh during a visit to Iraq, according to the Iranian newspaper Entekhab.

In June, Israel waged a twelve-day war against Iran and, together with the United States, bombed key nuclear facilities, including the underground Fordow facility. The Israeli government justified the action with a threat posed by Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Numerous legal experts classified the war as a violation of international law.

Iran's armed forces, for their part, attacked Israel with ballistic missiles during the war. According to authorities, at least 30 people were killed. Israeli airstrikes in Iran claimed over 1,000 lives. Human rights activists criticized the conduct of the war by both sides.

Experts also consider a resumption of hostilities likely, as a diplomatic solution to the dispute over Iran's nuclear program is not in sight. The West accuses the leadership in Tehran of seeking nuclear weapons – a charge Iran denies.

Meanwhile, Germany, France and Great Britain (E3), as co-signatories of the 2015 Vienna nuclear deal, have initiated the reintroduction of UN sanctions against Iran in order to increase diplomatic pressure on Tehran.

On Thursday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi met in the Qatari capital Doha. The results were not announced.

Iran had committed to limiting its nuclear program in the Vienna nuclear agreement. In return, sanctions were to be lifted.

However, during his first term in office, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the agreement. The deal has not been effectively implemented for years. Tehran therefore considers the reinstatement of the old sanctions illegitimate.