Australia | What remains of the promise of change?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has a way of portraying his personal story as a symbol of the "Australian promise": Growing up in a social housing apartment in the Camperdown district, raised by his mother alone, he embodies for many the value of social advancement through education and hard work. He continues to use this narrative today. In Australia, you can achieve anything if you work hard, that's his credo.

When the now 62-year-old took over the government in 2022, he promised a new political beginning – with a focus on climate protection, equality, integrity and reconciliation with indigenous peoples.

Climate protection fell short of expectations

But the road was bumpy – and not without setbacks. Especially in climate protection, once the centerpiece of his program, many things fell short of expectations . While a legally binding target to reduce emissions by 43 percent by 2030 was adopted, the government simultaneously approved ten new coal mines or expansions of existing projects – a contradiction that has fueled the disappointment of many environmental activists. The plan to limit the number of international students also failed in parliament – ​​partly due to a lack of consensus with smaller parties.

Perhaps the biggest setback was the failed referendum on the "Voice to Parliament" – an Indigenous advisory body that was to be enshrined in the constitution. In October 2023, a majority of Australians rejected the proposal – a bitter defeat for Albanese, who had strongly supported the initiative. Critics criticized insufficient explanations and a lack of social persuasion.

A lost referendum – and a deep wound

At the same time, the country is suffering from the economic consequences of global crises: Twelve interest rate hikes during Albanese's term in office have made loans more expensive, exacerbated the housing crisis, and caused rents and energy prices to rise dramatically. While inflation is declining and interest rates are falling, the feeling of being overwhelmed remains. "Confidence in the government is low, and voters clearly expect something to be done about the central issue of this election: the cost of living," says Intifar Chowdhury, a political science lecturer at Flinders University in Adelaide.

Nevertheless, the Albanese government can also boast successes. In foreign policy, it focused on diplomatic détente – particularly in relations with China , which had cooled considerably under previous conservative governments. Foreign Minister Penny Wong also strengthened relations with the Pacific island states and facilitated the return of several imprisoned Australians – including journalist Cheng Lei and Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

Successes in foreign policy – ​​quiet but effective

The ban on social media for those under 16 attracted international attention – a global initiative in the fight against digital addiction and psychological stress among young people. Platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Snapchat are now under pressure to implement age limits more effectively. Albanese also made a mark on social policy: tax cuts totaling 17.1 billion Australian dollars (9.6 billion euros) and cost-of-living relief packages are intended to particularly benefit families and low-income earners – a strategic move just months before the election.

The results remain mixed – but the opposition has so far failed to convince either. Peter Dutton's Liberal Party is often associated with a Trump-like political style: He polarized the referendum, spoke out against the "Voice," at one point planned mass layoffs in the public sector (which he later backed away from), and advocates a renaissance of fossil fuels. His proposal to build additional nuclear power plants in Australia has met with skepticism in many quarters.

An election with an open outcome

The latest polls give Labor hope. However, if things turn out differently and the Social Democrats lose their majority, they would be the first government since 1931 to be voted out after only one term. "The electorate is much more fluid today than ever before," says Chowdhury. Party loyalty is no longer enough. In addition, Generation Z and Millennial voters bring additional volatility. "2025 will therefore likely bring a close decision – not a clear victory."

If a hung parliament occurs, Labor would have to rely on the support of independent candidates and smaller parties – a scenario that would require coalitions and compromises.