Bitcoin Forecast 2025: Why this cycle is completely different

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Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of around $112,000 around two weeks ago and has been in a moderate correction phase ever since. Currently, the price is hovering around the $105,000 mark—a completely typical behavior within an overall uptrend. Nevertheless, analysts are increasingly pointing to evidence that something unusual is emerging in the current cycle.

According to analysts at Swan, the current Bitcoin phase is developing significantly differently than previous market cycles – and this is anything but coincidental. While the market is in the fourth and traditionally strongest year of its four-year cycle, the expected explosive price movement has so far failed to materialize. Instead of a classic parabolic rise, the Bitcoin market is showing hesitancy: moderate gains, shallow pullbacks, and lengthy sideways phases.

But beneath the surface, a fundamental shift is emerging. More and more existing investors are realizing profits above the $100,000 mark. At the same time, new market participants are entering the market – albeit not from the usual speculative camp. Instead, companies like BlackRock, Fidelity, listed Bitcoin holders, and institutional investors are buying for the long term. These players aren't trading; they're accumulating and are unlikely to sell so quickly.

Another indicator also shows an exceptional situation for Bitcoin. The so-called Super Signal volume oscillator, which analyst CryptoCon refers to, is a metric for identifying unusually low trading volumes within existing uptrends. The basic assumption behind it is that extremely low volume in an otherwise bullish environment signals a phase of relative apathy, which is often the beginning of explosive movements.

According to CryptoCon, such a signal has now been triggered again. Volume is currently at its lowest level since 2014. In previous cycles, the super signal occurred shortly before major bull markets: in December 2012, October 2016, and most recently in October 2023, where it initiated a roughly 200 percent price rally. According to the analyst, the current value indicates an extreme degree of passivity—a kind of "calm before the storm."

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