Ukraine raw materials deal: Selenskyj and Trump are concerned with PR, not rare earths

Ukraine is broke. But the much-vaunted raw materials agreement between the USA and the war-torn country will not change much. The political leadership of Ukraine under PresidentVolodymyr Zelensky is relying on something else: PR. In dark times, they need moments of illumination. In the information space, Kiev has often lost out to Russia recently. Zelensky is hoping for a turnaround.

However, the raw materials agreement, which is reportedly set to be signed by US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington on Friday, is not about the Ukrainian economy or any security guarantees. Instead, the deal is being used primarily to influence public perception.

The Zelensky-Trump deal is meaningless for the Ukrainian economy

Ukraine has no significant deposits of these critical metals, which have been reported on a lot in television and newspapers recently. For example, there is hardly any reliable data on their extent. The estimates are largely based on Soviet exploration from the 1970s. There are hardly any follow-up studies. Ukraine has really had more important things to do in recent years than research its rare earths.

So be it. Zelensky and Trump have reached an agreement. The deal stipulates that Ukraine will hand over significant revenues from the gas and oil sector to the USA . The profits will apparently flow into a fund jointly managed by Kyiv and Washington. There is talk of so-called joint ventures. Will the average Ukrainian from the capital Kyiv or Babushka Maria from a southern Ukrainian village also get a piece of the pie? Hardly.

This makes the deal relatively meaningless. The United States will not generate any revenue - at least in the short term. Rather, significant US investment is now required to build up a currently nonexistent rare earth metals sector in Ukraine.

What is the purpose of the Raw Materials Agreement?

The real purpose of the agreement seems to be to convince the American public that Trump has negotiated a lucrative deal that justifies the massive US investment in Ukraine. Americans might now believe that Trump has taken back the billions of dollars that the US has pumped into the war over the past three years and made a nice profit in the process. A great deal! A great deal with you Ukrainians!

Ultimately, President Zelensky must sign the agreement to maintain US support, even if it brings little direct benefit to Ukraine. The deal is a tactical maneuver to keep Trump happy and not to jeopardize the currently complicated relationship with the White House. However, this agreement is about political narratives of feigned unity. Things will get tricky for Ukraine and Zelensky when the first US companies start asking questions about where all the rare earths in Ukraine are.