60 percent by 2024: Shell expects rapid increase in LNG demand

The German LNG terminals are currently only lightly utilized. Despite this, the British oil company Shell is forecasting a notable increase in demand for liquefied gas. However, geopolitical tensions could slow growth.

The British oil multinational Shell expects demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to increase by around 60 percent by 2040. The drivers are economic growth in Asia, the spread of energy-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) and efforts to reduce emissions in heavy industry and transport.

Shell plc. 32.22

"Updated forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonization goals," said Shell manager Tom Summers when presenting the annual report. Significant growth in LNG supplies will come from the largest exporter, the United States, which may reach 180 million tonnes per year by 2030, accounting for a third of global supply.

Analysts expect that the US and Qatar, together with Qatar's massive North Field expansion project, which is scheduled to come online in 2026, could provide around 60 percent of the world's LNG supply by 2035. The liquefied gas is transported by special vessels. In 2024, however, global LNG trade increased by only two million tonnes to 407 million tonnes, the smallest increase in the last decade, due to restrictions on the development of new supplies, according to the Shell report.

Several LNG projects have been delayed over the past two years due to geopolitical tensions, regulatory hurdles, labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks, delaying the availability of around 30 million tonnes of new LNG supplies - the size of India's LNG imports - until 2028.

China, the world's largest LNG importer, and India are increasing their LNG import capacity and gas-related infrastructure to meet rising demand, Shell said. Natural gas imports to China are expected to rise this year as stimulus programs boost industrial demand.

Nevertheless, trade tensions with the US could cap growth. China imported a total of 131.69 million tonnes of natural gas in 2024, including pipeline delivery, which is the highest value since at least 2013. Of this volume, 76.65 million tonnes were LNG, according to customs data.